Developing, Testing, and Communicating Earthquake Forecasts: Current Practices and Future Directions

IF 25.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS
Leila Mizrahi, Irina Dallo, Nicholas J. van der Elst, Annemarie Christophersen, Ilaria Spassiani, Maximilian J. Werner, Pablo Iturrieta, José A. Bayona, Iunio Iervolino, Max Schneider, Morgan T. Page, Jiancang Zhuang, Marcus Herrmann, Andrew J. Michael, Giuseppe Falcone, Warner Marzocchi, David Rhoades, Matt Gerstenberger, Laura Gulia, Danijel Schorlemmer, Julia Becker, Marta Han, Lorena Kuratle, Michèle Marti, Stefan Wiemer
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Abstract

While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible, earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes occurring within some region over time. To enable informed decision-making of civil protection, governmental agencies, or the public, Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) systems aim to provide authoritative earthquake forecasts based on current earthquake activity in near-real time. Establishing OEF systems involves several nontrivial choices. This review captures the current state of OEF worldwide and analyzes expert recommendations on the development, testing, and communication of earthquake forecasts. An introductory summary of OEF-related research is followed by a description of OEF systems in Italy, New Zealand, and the United States. Combined, these two parts provide an informative and transparent snapshot of today's OEF landscape. In Section 4, we analyze the results of an expert elicitation that was conducted to seek guidance for the establishment of OEF systems. The elicitation identifies consensus and dissent on OEF issues among a non-representative group of 20 international earthquake forecasting experts. While the experts agree that communication products should be developed in collaboration with the forecast user groups, they disagree on whether forecasting models and testing methods should be user-dependent. No recommendations of strict model requirements could be elicited, but benchmark comparisons, prospective testing, reproducibility, and transparency are encouraged. Section 5 gives an outlook on the future of OEF. Besides covering recent research on earthquake forecasting model development and testing, upcoming OEF initiatives are described in the context of the expert elicitation findings.

Abstract Image

开发、测试和传播地震预报:当前实践与未来方向
虽然要确定性地预测地震发生的时间和地点仍然是不可能的,但地震预报模型可以提供一段时间内某些地区发生地震的概率估计。为了使民防、政府机构或公众能够做出明智的决策,地震业务预报(OEF)系统旨在根据当前的地震活动,近乎实时地提供权威的地震预报。建立 OEF 系统涉及到几个非同小可的选择。本综述介绍了全球 OEF 的现状,并分析了专家对地震预报的开发、测试和传播提出的建议。在对 OEF 相关研究进行介绍性总结之后,将对意大利、新西兰和美国的 OEF 系统进行描述。这两部分结合在一起,为当今的 OEF 状况提供了一个信息丰富且透明的缩影。在第 4 部分,我们分析了专家征询的结果,专家征询的目的是为建立 OEF 系统寻求指导。这次专家征询在由 20 位国际地震预报专家组成的非代表性小组中就 OEF 问题达成了共识和分歧。专家们一致认为,应与预报用户群体合作开发通信产品,但在预报模型和测试方法是否应取决于用户的问题上存在分歧。没有提出严格的模型要求建议,但鼓励进行基准比较、前瞻性测试、可重复性和透明度。第 5 节对 OEF 的未来进行了展望。除了介绍地震预报模型开发和测试方面的最新研究外,还结合专家征询的结果介绍了即将开展的 OEF 计划。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Reviews of Geophysics
Reviews of Geophysics 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
50.30
自引率
0.80%
发文量
28
审稿时长
12 months
期刊介绍: Geophysics Reviews (ROG) offers comprehensive overviews and syntheses of current research across various domains of the Earth and space sciences. Our goal is to present accessible and engaging reviews that cater to the diverse AGU community. While authorship is typically by invitation, we warmly encourage readers and potential authors to share their suggestions with our editors.
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