Predicting transit ridership using an agent-based modeling approach

Abstract

Accurate ridership estimation is pivotal in the advancement of sustainable transit systems, be it for proposed or existing transit networks. A multitude of methods, including travel demand models, direct ridership models, and regression models, have been employed by practitioners and researchers to estimate ridership at both station and network levels. However, travel demand models, frequently utilized for new transit lines, exhibit intrinsic limitations due to their aggregate nature and complexity based on their types. Researchers have also identified deficiencies, such as the incapacity to capture small spatial resolutions and specific station characteristics, as these models are predominantly designed for large-scale analyses.

This study aims to overcome these limitations by introducing a novel approach that utilizes three microscopic agent-based models to develop a travel demand modeling suite, providing a policy-sensitive forecasting tool. The suite comprises three agent-based models: SILO-MITO-MATSim. Validation of the model against previous year data is conducted, and projections are made for future years. The model is applied to estimate network-level ridership for the proposed ‘Purple Line,’ a light rail transit line planned by MDOT, MTA, Maryland, which will integrate with the Washington D.C. Metro, the fourth largest transit system in the USA, boasting an average daily ridership of half a million. The study’s findings indicate an anticipated ridership of approximately 31,230 passengers in the inaugural year of 2027. The proposed model offers a robust and policy-sensitive solution empowering decision-makers to make informed choices to support a sustainable transportation system.