Transit Rider Heat Stress in Atlanta, GA under Current and Future Climate Scenarios

Huiying Fan, Geyu Lyu, Hongyu Lu, Angshuman Guin, Randall Guensler
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Abstract

Transit is a crucial mode of transportation, especially in urban areas and for urban and rural disadvantaged communities. Because extreme temperatures often pose threats to the elderly, members of the disability community, and other vulnerable populations, this study seeks to understand the level of influence that extreme temperatures may have on transit users across different demographic groups. In this case study for Atlanta, GA, heat stress is predicted for 2019 transit riders (using transit rider activity survey data) and for three future climate scenarios, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, into the year 2100. The HeatPath Analyzer and TransitSim 4.0 models were applied to predict cumulative heat exposure and trip-level risk for 35,999 trip equivalents for an average Atlanta area weekday in the summer of 2019. The analyses show that under 2019 weather conditions, 8.33% of summer trips were estimated to be conducted under extreme heat. With the projected future climate conditions, the percentage of trips under extreme heat risk grows steadily. By 2100, 37.1%, 56.1%, and 76.4% are projected to be under extreme heat risk for scenarios SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively. Under current weather conditions, Atlanta transit riders that own no vehicles and transit riders that are African American are disproportionately influenced by extreme heat. The disparity between these two groups and other groups of transit riders becomes wider as climate change continues to exacerbate. The findings of the study highlight an urgent need to implement heat mitigation and adaptation strategies in urban transit networks.
当前和未来气候情景下佐治亚州亚特兰大市公交乘客的热应激反应
公共交通是一种重要的交通方式,尤其是在城市地区和城乡弱势社区。由于极端气温往往会对老年人、残障人士和其他弱势群体构成威胁,本研究试图了解极端气温对不同人口群体中的公交用户的影响程度。在这项针对佐治亚州亚特兰大市的案例研究中,对 2019 年的公交乘客(使用公交乘客活动调查数据)以及 2100 年的三种未来气候情景(SSP245、SSP370 和 SSP585)进行了热压力预测。HeatPath Analyzer 和 TransitSim 4.0 模型用于预测 2019 年夏季亚特兰大地区工作日平均 35999 人次的累积热暴露和出行风险。分析表明,在 2019 年的天气条件下,估计有 8.33% 的夏季出行是在极端高温下进行的。根据对未来气候条件的预测,极端高温风险下的出行比例将稳步增长。预计到 2100 年,在 SSP245、SSP370 和 SSP585 情景下,分别有 37.1%、56.1% 和 76.4% 的出行将面临极端高温风险。在目前的天气条件下,亚特兰大没有车辆的公交乘客和非裔美国人受极端高温的影响尤为严重。随着气候变化的不断加剧,这两个群体与其他公交乘客群体之间的差距也会越来越大。研究结果凸显了在城市交通网络中实施高温缓解和适应策略的迫切需要。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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