Measuring the Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination Rates on Carbon Emissions Using LightGBM Model: Evidence from the EU Region

IF 2.3 4区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY
Systems Pub Date : 2024-08-04 DOI:10.3390/systems12080284
Xinran Yue, Yan Li
{"title":"Measuring the Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination Rates on Carbon Emissions Using LightGBM Model: Evidence from the EU Region","authors":"Xinran Yue, Yan Li","doi":"10.3390/systems12080284","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"COVID-19 vaccination status has become a significant factor influencing carbon emissions in recent years. This paper explores the relationship between vaccination programs and CO2 emissions to provide scientific support for future emergency management. The study utilizes daily carbon emissions data and daily vaccination program data from six sectors within the European Union. It compares the accuracy of various machine learning models by incorporating 11 economic control variables. Additionally, it quantitatively decomposes the contribution of each variable to carbon emissions during the pandemic using SHAP values. The findings indicate that the LightGBM model predicts carbon emissions much more accurately than other models. Furthermore, COVID-19-related variables, such as daily vaccination volumes and cumulative vaccination totals, are identified as significant factors affecting carbon emissions.","PeriodicalId":36394,"journal":{"name":"Systems","volume":"91 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Systems","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems12080284","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

COVID-19 vaccination status has become a significant factor influencing carbon emissions in recent years. This paper explores the relationship between vaccination programs and CO2 emissions to provide scientific support for future emergency management. The study utilizes daily carbon emissions data and daily vaccination program data from six sectors within the European Union. It compares the accuracy of various machine learning models by incorporating 11 economic control variables. Additionally, it quantitatively decomposes the contribution of each variable to carbon emissions during the pandemic using SHAP values. The findings indicate that the LightGBM model predicts carbon emissions much more accurately than other models. Furthermore, COVID-19-related variables, such as daily vaccination volumes and cumulative vaccination totals, are identified as significant factors affecting carbon emissions.
利用 LightGBM 模型衡量 COVID-19 疫苗接种率对碳排放的影响:欧盟地区的证据
近年来,COVID-19 疫苗接种情况已成为影响碳排放的一个重要因素。本文探讨了疫苗接种计划与二氧化碳排放之间的关系,为未来的应急管理提供科学支持。研究利用了欧盟六个部门的每日碳排放数据和每日疫苗接种计划数据。通过纳入 11 个经济控制变量,比较了各种机器学习模型的准确性。此外,它还利用 SHAP 值对每个变量在大流行期间对碳排放的贡献进行了定量分解。研究结果表明,LightGBM 模型比其他模型更准确地预测了碳排放量。此外,与 COVID-19 相关的变量,如每日疫苗接种量和累计疫苗接种总量,被认为是影响碳排放的重要因素。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
Systems
Systems Decision Sciences-Information Systems and Management
CiteScore
2.80
自引率
15.80%
发文量
204
审稿时长
11 weeks
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信