Extreme climate events and future population exposure under climate change in the Huaihe River basin of China based on CMIP6 multimodel ensembles projections

Abstract

The Huaihe River basin (HRB) of China located in the climate transition zone between warm temperate and subtropical areas is highly sensitive to climatic change. However, the changes in future climate extreme events under anthropogenic warming and the population exposure to these climate extremes in HRB remain unexplored. Here, using the eight commonly used extreme climate indices and based on the bias-corrections of 16 global climate models (GCMs) in CMIP6, we present a projection and uncertainty analysis of extreme events and investigate the corresponding population exposure risk in HRB under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). The 16-GCM ensemble mean projects an evident warming trend under all three scenarios with a total increase of 25.6–68.0 days in summer days (>25°C) by the end of the century in HRB. Larger increases (decreases) in maximum and minimum temperatures (frost days) are projected in the western HRB. Very heavy rain days (R20mm), maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5day) and simple daily intensity index (SDII) will experience intensification across most of HRB (especially in southern and western HRB). The consecutive dry days is projected to decrease in northwestern HRB and increase in southern HRB. However, there is a large spatial variability in GCM uncertainty with a higher SSP scenario generally having higher uncertainty. Increases in summer days and R20mm exacerbate population exposure in HRB in near future (2030–2059), but in far future (2070–2099) although summer days (R20mm) continues to rise, population exposure is expected to decrease due to the rapid decline in population density.