Articulating a Philippine grand strategy: Policy continuities on the South China Sea

Abstract

Does the Philippines have a grand strategy? The question is biased in favor of a negative answer. Odds are stacked against detecting a grand strategy in non-great-power states. Operationalizing grand strategy as a consistent pattern of behavior reduces bias, but odds are also stacked against observing policy continuities in the Philippines. Increasing the level of analysis, emphasizing outcomes over intentions, and enlarging the time scale can help. Applying these analytical techniques, I argue that a Philippine grand strategy is evident in continuities in the country's foreign and security policies on the South China Sea from 1995 to 2022 under the successive administrations of Ramos, Estrada, Arroyo, Aquino III, and Duterte. The grand strategy has five component policies: (1) bilateral diplomacy with China, (2) multilateral diplomacy through the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), (3) grounding in the law of the sea, (4) maintaining the alliance with the US, and (5) modernizing the military.