Historical analysis of tropical and non-tropical induced flooding within the James River Basin, Virginia

IF 3 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2024-04-28 DOI:10.1111/jfr3.12998

William Paul Chilton, Robert Weiss, Jennifer L. Irish

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Abstract

The development of a basin-specific comprehensive flood record using publicly available data for the James River Basin, Virginia. Using mixed surface analysis maps (NOAA, NWS), historical hurricane records (IBTrACS, HURDAT2), and flood and river gauge records (NWS, USGS), a database is created for analysis. Related to creating this database, a novel classification of six unique weather systems (non-tropical and tropical) responsible for flooding is presented. The analysis includes Two-Way tables with observed marginal and joint probabilities in various potential flood, storm, and regional combinations. Results show 233 tropical systems passed within the 500-km study area, with 12.4%, or 29 systems of those systems causing flooding within the basin. An additional 713 events were non-tropical, composing the majority of flood sources in the basin. Non-tropical systems are responsible for 84% of the worst floods recorded, leading to an increased frequency of 6% yearly since 1941 and nearly 770% between 2014 and 2018. The findings of this study will be the basis for assessing land use and population patterns in the area, along with a future compound flooding model for the lower James River Basin.

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弗吉尼亚州詹姆斯河流域热带和非热带洪水历史分析

利用弗吉尼亚州詹姆斯河流域的公开数据，开发针对该流域的综合洪水记录。利用混合地表分析图（美国国家海洋和大气管理局、美国国家气象局）、历史飓风记录（IBTrACS、HURDAT2）以及洪水和河道测量记录（美国国家气象局、美国地质调查局），创建了一个数据库用于分析。在创建该数据库的过程中，对造成洪水的六种独特天气系统（非热带和热带）进行了新颖的分类。分析包括两向表，其中包含各种潜在洪水、风暴和区域组合的观测边际概率和联合概率。结果显示，有 233 个热带系统经过 500 公里的研究区域，其中 12.4% 或 29 个系统造成了流域内的洪水。另外 713 个事件为非热带事件，构成了流域内的大部分洪水源。在有记录的最严重洪水中，84%是由非热带系统造成的，导致洪水频率自 1941 年以来每年增加 6%，在 2014 年至 2018 年期间增加了近 770%。这项研究的结果将成为评估该地区土地利用和人口模式的基础，以及詹姆斯河下游流域未来复合洪水模型的基础。

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来源期刊

Journal of Flood Risk Management ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-WATER RESOURCES

CiteScore

8.40

自引率

7.30%

发文量

审稿时长

12 months

期刊介绍： Journal of Flood Risk Management provides an international platform for knowledge sharing in all areas related to flood risk. Its explicit aim is to disseminate ideas across the range of disciplines where flood related research is carried out and it provides content ranging from leading edge academic papers to applied content with the practitioner in mind. Readers and authors come from a wide background and include hydrologists, meteorologists, geographers, geomorphologists, conservationists, civil engineers, social scientists, policy makers, insurers and practitioners. They share an interest in managing the complex interactions between the many skills and disciplines that underpin the management of flood risk across the world.