Understanding Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on the Salinization of Low-Lying Coastal Groundwater Systems

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-08-03 DOI:10.1029/2024EF004737
Stephan L. Seibert, Janek Greskowiak, Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink, Gudrun Massmann
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Abstract

Fresh coastal groundwater is a valuable water resource of global significance, but its quality is threatened by saltwater intrusion. Excessive groundwater abstraction, sea-level rise (SLR), land subsidence and other climate-related factors are expected to accelerate this process in the future. The objective of this study is to (a) quantify the impact of projected climate change and (b) explore the role of individual hydrogeological boundaries on groundwater salinization of low-lying coastal groundwater systems until 2100 CE. We employ numerical density-dependent groundwater flow and salt transport modeling for this purpose, using Northwestern Germany as a case. Separate model variants are constructed and forced with climate data, that is, projected SLR and groundwater recharge, as well as likely ranges of other hydrogeological boundaries, including land subsidence, abstraction rates and drain levels. We find that autonomous salinization in the marsh areas, resulting from non-equilibrium of the present-day groundwater salinity distribution with current boundary conditions, is responsible for >50% of the salinization increase until 2100 CE. Sea-level rise, land subsidence and drain levels are the other major factors controlling salinization. We further show that salinization of the water resources is a potential threat to coastal water users, including water suppliers and the agrarian sector, as well as coastal ecosystems. Regional-scale uplifting of drain levels is identified as an efficient measure to mitigate salinization of deep and shallow groundwater in the future. The presented modeling approach highlights the consequences of climate change and anthropogenic impacts for coastal salinization, supporting the timely development of mitigation strategies.

Abstract Image

了解气候变化和人类活动对低洼沿海地下水系统盐碱化的影响
沿海地下淡水是具有全球意义的宝贵水资源,但其质量正受到海水入侵的威胁。过度抽取地下水、海平面上升(SLR)、土地沉降和其他与气候相关的因素预计将在未来加速这一进程。本研究的目的是:(a) 量化预测气候变化的影响;(b) 探讨公元 2100 年前各个水文地质边界对低洼沿海地下水系统地下水盐碱化的作用。为此,我们以德国西北部为例,采用了依赖密度的地下水流和盐分运移数值模型。我们构建了不同的模型变体,并利用气候数据,即预测的可持续土地退化和地下水补给,以及其他水文地质边界的可能范围,包括土地沉降、抽取率和排水水平。我们发现,由于当今地下水盐度分布与当前边界条件不平衡,沼泽地区的自主盐碱化是公元 2100 年前盐碱化加剧的 50%原因。海平面上升、土地沉降和排水水平是控制盐化的其他主要因素。我们进一步表明,水资源盐碱化对沿海水资源使用者(包括供水者和农业部门)以及沿海生态系统构成了潜在威胁。区域范围的排水水平抬升被认为是未来缓解深层和浅层地下水盐碱化的有效措施。所提出的建模方法强调了气候变化和人为影响对沿海盐碱化的后果,有助于及时制定缓解战略。
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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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