Summer Monsoon Drying Accelerates India's Groundwater Depletion Under Climate Change

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI:10.1029/2024EF004516
Vimal Mishra, Swarup Dangar, Virendra M. Tiwari, Upmanu Lall, Yoshihide Wada
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Abstract

Groundwater in north India remains a vital food and water security resource for more than one billion people. Both summer monsoon drying, and winter warming pose considerable challenges for rapidly declining groundwater. However, their impacts on irrigation water demands and groundwater storage under the observed and projected future climate remain unexplored. Using in situ observations, satellite data, and a hydrological model that considers the role of irrigation and groundwater pumping, we show that summer monsoon drying and winter warming accelerate groundwater depletion in north India during the observed climate, which will continue in the projected future climate. Summer monsoon precipitation has significantly (P-value = 0.04) declined (∼8%) while winters have become warmer in north India during 1951–2021. Both satellite (GRACE/GRACE-FO) and hydrological model-based estimates show a rapid groundwater depletion (∼1.5 cm/year) in north India with a net loss of 450 km3 of groundwater during 2002–2021. The summer monsoon drying followed by winter warming cause a substantial reduction in groundwater storage due to reduced groundwater recharge and enhanced pumping to meet irrigation demands. Summer monsoon drying and winter warming will continue to affect groundwater storage in north India in the future. For instance, summer monsoon drying (10%–15% deficit for near-far periods) followed by substantial winter warming (1–4°C) in the future will further accelerate groundwater depletion by increasing (6%–20%) irrigation water demands and reducing groundwater recharge (6%–12%). Groundwater sustainability measures including reducing groundwater abstraction and enhancing the groundwater recharge during the summer monsoon seasons are needed to ensure future agricultural production.

Abstract Image

夏季季风干燥加速印度地下水在气候变化下的枯竭
印度北部的地下水仍然是十多亿人口的重要粮食和水安全资源。夏季季风干燥和冬季气候变暖都给迅速减少的地下水带来了巨大挑战。然而,在观测到的和预测的未来气候条件下,它们对灌溉用水需求和地下水储量的影响仍有待探索。利用现场观测、卫星数据以及考虑灌溉和地下水抽取作用的水文模型,我们表明,在观测气候下,夏季季风干燥和冬季变暖加速了印度北部的地下水枯竭,而在预测的未来气候下,这种情况仍将持续。1951-2021 年间,夏季季风降水量明显减少(P 值 = 0.04)(∼8%),而印度北部的冬季则变得更加温暖。卫星(GRACE/GRACE-FO)和基于水文模型的估算都显示,2002-2021 年期间,印度北部的地下水消耗迅速(每年 1.5 厘米),地下水净损失 450 立方公里。夏季季风干燥和冬季变暖导致地下水补给减少和为满足灌溉需求而增加抽水,从而导致地下水储量大幅减少。未来,夏季季风干燥和冬季变暖将继续影响印度北部的地下水储量。例如,夏季季风干燥(近远期缺水 10%-15%)和冬季大幅变暖(1-4°C)将进一步加速地下水枯竭,灌溉用水需求将增加(6%-20%),地下水补给将减少(6%-12%)。为确保未来的农业生产,需要采取地下水可持续性措施,包括减少地下水抽取量和加强夏季季风季节的地下水补给。
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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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