Commuting mode choice and work from home in the later stages of COVID-19: Consolidating a future focussed prediction tool to inform transport and land use planning

IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

As COVID-19 slowly dissipated after 30 months since March 2020, working from home (WFH) continues to be popular, with support from notable numbers of employees and employers. There is growing evidence that we have either reached, or appear to be close to, a level of WFH − to some extent − that might be described as an equilibrium outcome going forward. Hence, there is a need to update any travel behaviour response models that have been developed during the passage of the pandemic. This paper sets out a commuter model for each day of the week for the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area as of September 2022; where the alternative responses are to not work, WFH, or commute by one of ten modes available. Given the probability of WFH obtained from a mixed logit model, we construct a mapping equation to establish the sources of statistical variance by origin and destination locations that influence the incidence of WFH. The evidence is used as the basis of commenting on what this means for longer-term structural changes in network performance, the likely move to a greater focus on living locally, and the need (or otherwise) for employers to retain office space. A significant return to the office has recently been promoted by some employers, and we comment on this as to what it might mean for the future of a hybrid working location model.

COVID-19 后期阶段的通勤模式选择和在家办公:巩固面向未来的预测工具,为交通和土地利用规划提供信息
自 2020 年 3 月以来,COVID-19 在 30 个月后慢慢消散,在家办公(WFH)继续受到欢迎,并得到了大量雇员和雇主的支持。越来越多的证据表明,我们已经达到或似乎接近在家办公的水平--在某种程度上--可以说是未来的平衡结果。因此,有必要更新在大流行期间开发的任何旅行行为响应模型。本文为大悉尼都会区 2022 年 9 月的一周中的每一天建立了一个通勤者模型;在该模型中,可供选择的应对方式包括不工作、WFH 或采用现有十种通勤方式中的一种。根据混合对数模型得出的 WFH 概率,我们构建了一个映射方程,以确定影响 WFH 发生率的出发地和目的地的统计差异来源。在此基础上,我们将对以下问题进行评论:这对网络性能的长期结构性变化意味着什么?最近,一些雇主提倡大力回归办公室,我们对此进行了评论,以探讨这对混合工作地点模式的未来意味着什么。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
13.20
自引率
7.80%
发文量
257
审稿时长
9.8 months
期刊介绍: Transportation Research: Part A contains papers of general interest in all passenger and freight transportation modes: policy analysis, formulation and evaluation; planning; interaction with the political, socioeconomic and physical environment; design, management and evaluation of transportation systems. Topics are approached from any discipline or perspective: economics, engineering, sociology, psychology, etc. Case studies, survey and expository papers are included, as are articles which contribute to unification of the field, or to an understanding of the comparative aspects of different systems. Papers which assess the scope for technological innovation within a social or political framework are also published. The journal is international, and places equal emphasis on the problems of industrialized and non-industrialized regions. Part A''s aims and scope are complementary to Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Part C: Emerging Technologies and Part D: Transport and Environment. Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review. Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour. The complete set forms the most cohesive and comprehensive reference of current research in transportation science.
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