{"title":"Do high-speed railways have an impact on population change? evidence from Japan","authors":"Jingyuan Wang, Shintaro Terabe, Hideki Yaginuma, Haruka Uno, Yu Suzuki","doi":"10.1016/j.tra.2024.104187","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Shinkansen high-speed railway (HSR) network in Japan has greatly improved the efficiency with which people can travel and relocate between different regions of Japan. The ease with which people can now reach different cities and regions has helped to increase the balance and diversity of Japan’s population distribution. This study empirically examined the relationship between HSRs and population change in the context of Japan’s ongoing population decline. Using panel data for the years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015, an empirical analysis was conducted using the econometric propensity score matching-difference-in-difference (PSM-DID) method and by creatively applying 1-km grid data. This information was used to quantify the causal effect of the Shinkansen’s opening and to determine whether it resulted in an increase or decrease in the population size of the areas around the Shinkansen stations, all while taking into account the heterogeneity of individual Shinkansen stations. Finally, we reached the following conclusions: (1) The opening of the Shinkansen stations has had a significant impact on population change, and has produced a siphoning effect; (2) the analysis of dynamic effects revealed that different stations have different levels of impact in terms of population change and growth effects; and (3) the Shinkansen stations do not strictly adhere to administrative boundaries in terms of the scope of their impact on population change; rather, they have an effect on a wider geographic space. Finally, we analyzed the benefits and problems associated with the population siphoning effect produced by the Shinkansen in terms of population concentration and population loss in different areas, respectively. It is hoped that this analysis can provide a reference point for planners interested in understanding the broader impacts of large-scale HSR developments, as well as for policymakers who are considering HSR development as a policy tool.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":49421,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice","volume":"187 ","pages":"Article 104187"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856424002350/pdfft?md5=6c719d9cf22d554097478760f2c52ad9&pid=1-s2.0-S0965856424002350-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856424002350","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The Shinkansen high-speed railway (HSR) network in Japan has greatly improved the efficiency with which people can travel and relocate between different regions of Japan. The ease with which people can now reach different cities and regions has helped to increase the balance and diversity of Japan’s population distribution. This study empirically examined the relationship between HSRs and population change in the context of Japan’s ongoing population decline. Using panel data for the years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015, an empirical analysis was conducted using the econometric propensity score matching-difference-in-difference (PSM-DID) method and by creatively applying 1-km grid data. This information was used to quantify the causal effect of the Shinkansen’s opening and to determine whether it resulted in an increase or decrease in the population size of the areas around the Shinkansen stations, all while taking into account the heterogeneity of individual Shinkansen stations. Finally, we reached the following conclusions: (1) The opening of the Shinkansen stations has had a significant impact on population change, and has produced a siphoning effect; (2) the analysis of dynamic effects revealed that different stations have different levels of impact in terms of population change and growth effects; and (3) the Shinkansen stations do not strictly adhere to administrative boundaries in terms of the scope of their impact on population change; rather, they have an effect on a wider geographic space. Finally, we analyzed the benefits and problems associated with the population siphoning effect produced by the Shinkansen in terms of population concentration and population loss in different areas, respectively. It is hoped that this analysis can provide a reference point for planners interested in understanding the broader impacts of large-scale HSR developments, as well as for policymakers who are considering HSR development as a policy tool.
期刊介绍:
Transportation Research: Part A contains papers of general interest in all passenger and freight transportation modes: policy analysis, formulation and evaluation; planning; interaction with the political, socioeconomic and physical environment; design, management and evaluation of transportation systems. Topics are approached from any discipline or perspective: economics, engineering, sociology, psychology, etc. Case studies, survey and expository papers are included, as are articles which contribute to unification of the field, or to an understanding of the comparative aspects of different systems. Papers which assess the scope for technological innovation within a social or political framework are also published. The journal is international, and places equal emphasis on the problems of industrialized and non-industrialized regions.
Part A''s aims and scope are complementary to Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Part C: Emerging Technologies and Part D: Transport and Environment. Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review. Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour. The complete set forms the most cohesive and comprehensive reference of current research in transportation science.