Do high-speed railways have an impact on population change? evidence from Japan

IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS
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Abstract

The Shinkansen high-speed railway (HSR) network in Japan has greatly improved the efficiency with which people can travel and relocate between different regions of Japan. The ease with which people can now reach different cities and regions has helped to increase the balance and diversity of Japan’s population distribution. This study empirically examined the relationship between HSRs and population change in the context of Japan’s ongoing population decline. Using panel data for the years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015, an empirical analysis was conducted using the econometric propensity score matching-difference-in-difference (PSM-DID) method and by creatively applying 1-km grid data. This information was used to quantify the causal effect of the Shinkansen’s opening and to determine whether it resulted in an increase or decrease in the population size of the areas around the Shinkansen stations, all while taking into account the heterogeneity of individual Shinkansen stations. Finally, we reached the following conclusions: (1) The opening of the Shinkansen stations has had a significant impact on population change, and has produced a siphoning effect; (2) the analysis of dynamic effects revealed that different stations have different levels of impact in terms of population change and growth effects; and (3) the Shinkansen stations do not strictly adhere to administrative boundaries in terms of the scope of their impact on population change; rather, they have an effect on a wider geographic space. Finally, we analyzed the benefits and problems associated with the population siphoning effect produced by the Shinkansen in terms of population concentration and population loss in different areas, respectively. It is hoped that this analysis can provide a reference point for planners interested in understanding the broader impacts of large-scale HSR developments, as well as for policymakers who are considering HSR development as a policy tool.

Abstract Image

高速铁路对人口变化有影响吗? 来自日本的证据
日本的新干线高速铁路(高铁)网络大大提高了人们在日本不同地区之间旅行和迁移的效率。现在,人们可以轻松到达不同的城市和地区,这有助于提高日本人口分布的平衡性和多样性。在日本人口持续减少的背景下,本研究对高铁与人口变化之间的关系进行了实证研究。利用 1995 年、2000 年、2005 年、2010 年和 2015 年的面板数据,采用计量经济学中的倾向得分匹配-差分法(PSM-DID),并创造性地应用 1 公里网格数据,进行了实证分析。这些信息被用来量化新干线开通的因果效应,并确定新干线开通是导致新干线车站周边地区人口数量增加还是减少,同时考虑到各个新干线车站的异质性。最后,我们得出了以下结论:(1) 新干线车站的开通对人口变化产生了重大影响,并产生了虹吸效应;(2) 动态效应分析表明,在人口变化和增长效应方面,不同车站的影响程度不同;(3) 新干线车站对人口变化的影响范围并不严格局限于行政区划,而是对更广阔的地理空间产生了影响。最后,我们分别从不同地区人口集聚和人口流失的角度分析了新干线产生的人口虹吸效应带来的好处和问题。希望这一分析能为有志于了解大规模高铁发展所带来的广泛影响的规划者,以及考虑将高铁发展作为政策工具的政策制定者提供参考。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
13.20
自引率
7.80%
发文量
257
审稿时长
9.8 months
期刊介绍: Transportation Research: Part A contains papers of general interest in all passenger and freight transportation modes: policy analysis, formulation and evaluation; planning; interaction with the political, socioeconomic and physical environment; design, management and evaluation of transportation systems. Topics are approached from any discipline or perspective: economics, engineering, sociology, psychology, etc. Case studies, survey and expository papers are included, as are articles which contribute to unification of the field, or to an understanding of the comparative aspects of different systems. Papers which assess the scope for technological innovation within a social or political framework are also published. The journal is international, and places equal emphasis on the problems of industrialized and non-industrialized regions. Part A''s aims and scope are complementary to Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Part C: Emerging Technologies and Part D: Transport and Environment. Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review. Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour. The complete set forms the most cohesive and comprehensive reference of current research in transportation science.
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