Cities and the sea level

IF 5.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Yatang Lin , Thomas K.J. McDermott , Guy Michaels
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Construction on low elevation coastal zones is risky for both residents and taxpayers who bail them out. To investigate this construction, we analyze spatially disaggregated data covering the entire US Atlantic and Gulf coasts. We find that the 1990 housing stock reflects historical avoidance of locations prone to sea level rise (SLR) and flooding, but net new construction from 1990–2010 was similar in SLR-prone locations and safer ones; and within densely built coastal areas, net new construction was higher in SLR-prone locations. These findings are difficult to rationalize as mere products of moral hazard or imperfect information, suggesting that people build on risky locations to benefit from nearby urban agglomerations. To explain our findings, we develop a simple model of a monocentric coastal city, which we use to explore the consequences of sea level rise. This model helps explain cities’ role in expanding flood risks, and how future sea level rise may reshape coastal cities, creating significant challenges for policymakers.

城市与海平面
在低海拔沿海地区进行建设,对居民和为其提供救助的纳税人来说都是有风险的。为了研究这种建设,我们分析了涵盖整个美国大西洋和海湾沿岸的空间分类数据。我们发现,1990 年的住房存量反映了历史上对易受海平面上升(SLR)和洪水影响地区的回避,但 1990-2010 年期间,易受 SLR 影响地区和较安全地区的净新建住房量相近;在建筑密集的沿海地区,易受 SLR 影响地区的净新建住房量较高。这些发现很难被合理地解释为仅仅是道德风险或信息不完善的产物,这表明人们在风险较高的地区进行建设是为了从附近的城市群中获益。为了解释我们的发现,我们建立了一个简单的单中心沿海城市模型,用来探讨海平面上升的后果。该模型有助于解释城市在扩大洪水风险中的作用,以及未来海平面上升可能如何重塑沿海城市,给政策制定者带来重大挑战。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
10.60
自引率
4.80%
发文量
64
期刊介绍: The Journal of Urban Economics provides a focal point for the publication of research papers in the rapidly expanding field of urban economics. It publishes papers of great scholarly merit on a wide range of topics and employing a wide range of approaches to urban economics. The Journal welcomes papers that are theoretical or empirical, positive or normative. Although the Journal is not intended to be multidisciplinary, papers by noneconomists are welcome if they are of interest to economists. Brief Notes are also published if they lie within the purview of the Journal and if they contain new information, comment on published work, or new theoretical suggestions.
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