Precursory seismic quiescence of major earthquakes along the Sagaing fault zone, central Myanmar: application of the pattern informatics technique

IF 4 3区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geoscience Letters Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI:10.1186/s40562-024-00351-9

Premwadee Traitangwong, Sutthikan Khamsiri, Santi Pailoplee

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

In this study, the precursory seismic activity before a major earthquake was investigated by using the Pattern Informatics (PI) algorithm along the Sagaing fault zone (SFZ), Central Myanmar. After improving the earthquake catalog, the completeness of seismicity data with Mw ≥ 3.6 reported during 1980–2020 was used in retrospective testing to find the suitable parameters of the PI algorithm. According to the retrospective test with 6 cases of different forecast period times related to Mw ≥ 5.0 earthquakes, including verification using the relative operating characteristics (ROC) diagram, the characteristic parameters of both time intervals (change time and forecast time window) = 10 years and target forecast earthquake magnitude Mw ≥ 5.0 are suitable parameters for PI investigation along the SFZ. Therefore, these parameters were applied with the most up-to-date seismic dataset to evaluate the prospective areas of upcoming major earthquakes. The results reveal that the Myitkyina and the vicinity of Naypyidaw might be at risk of a major earthquake in the future. Therefore, effective earthquake mitigation plans should be urgently arranged.

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缅甸中部实皆断陷带大地震的前震静止：模式信息学技术的应用

本研究利用模式信息学（PI）算法对缅甸中部实皆断陷带（SFZ）大地震前的前兆地震活动进行了研究。在完善地震目录后，利用 1980-2020 年间报道的 Mw ≥ 3.6 的地震数据的完整性进行回顾性测试，以找到 PI 算法的合适参数。根据与 Mw ≥ 5.0 地震相关的 6 个不同预报周期时间案例的回顾性测试，包括使用相对运算特征（ROC）图进行验证，时间间隔（变化时间和预报时间窗口）= 10 年和目标预报震级 Mw ≥ 5.0 这两个特征参数是适合沿 SFZ 进行 PI 调查的参数。因此，应用这些参数和最新地震数据集来评估即将发生大地震的潜在区域。结果表明，密支那和内比都附近地区未来可能会发生大地震。因此，应立即安排有效的防震减灾计划。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Geoscience Letters Earth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences

CiteScore

4.90

自引率

2.50%

发文量

审稿时长

25 weeks

期刊介绍： Geoscience Letters is the official journal of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society, and a fully open access journal published under the SpringerOpen brand. The journal publishes original, innovative and timely research letter articles and concise reviews on studies of the Earth and its environment, the planetary and space sciences. Contributions reflect the eight scientific sections of the AOGS: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeosciences, Hydrological Sciences, Interdisciplinary Geosciences, Ocean Sciences, Planetary Sciences, Solar and Terrestrial Sciences, and Solid Earth Sciences. Geoscience Letters focuses on cutting-edge fundamental and applied research in the broad field of the geosciences, including the applications of geoscience research to societal problems. This journal is Open Access, providing rapid electronic publication of high-quality, peer-reviewed scientific contributions.