{"title":"Is there a time-series momentum effect in the Asian crude oil futures market?","authors":"Hao Zhong, Xiaoxiao He, Yuqi Li","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102472","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span><span>Huang et al. (2020)</span></span> first confirmed that the time-series momentum (TSM) effect documented by several recent influential studies is questionable for a large cross-section of futures. We replicate their study and further examine whether TSM exists in the Asian-Pacific crude oil futures markets. The empirical results do not support the existence of TSM. Although the pooled regression generates large and significant <span><math><mi>t</mi></math></span>-statistic, it is not statistically reliable as it is smaller than the statistical values of the wild and pairs bootstraps. In terms of profitability, further evidence suggests that TSM does not significantly outperform the simple time series history strategy without any predictability.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 102472"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X24002245","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Huang et al. (2020) first confirmed that the time-series momentum (TSM) effect documented by several recent influential studies is questionable for a large cross-section of futures. We replicate their study and further examine whether TSM exists in the Asian-Pacific crude oil futures markets. The empirical results do not support the existence of TSM. Although the pooled regression generates large and significant -statistic, it is not statistically reliable as it is smaller than the statistical values of the wild and pairs bootstraps. In terms of profitability, further evidence suggests that TSM does not significantly outperform the simple time series history strategy without any predictability.
期刊介绍:
The Pacific-Basin Finance Journal is aimed at providing a specialized forum for the publication of academic research on capital markets of the Asia-Pacific countries. Primary emphasis will be placed on the highest quality empirical and theoretical research in the following areas: • Market Micro-structure; • Investment and Portfolio Management; • Theories of Market Equilibrium; • Valuation of Financial and Real Assets; • Behavior of Asset Prices in Financial Sectors; • Normative Theory of Financial Management; • Capital Markets of Development; • Market Mechanisms.