{"title":"Statistical Literacy in the Police: Handling Statistical Information and Using it for Risk Assessments","authors":"Christian Zimmermann","doi":"10.1007/s11896-024-09689-4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Statistics are used in the police, for example, to show changes in crime trends over time and to provide evidence for the effectiveness of crime prevention measures. Statistical literacy is the ability to understand and draw sound conclusions from statistical data; therefore, it contributes to professional competencies in police work. In the present study, the handling of statistics and probabilities by police commissioner trainees is examined in more detail, focusing on risk literacy. Using police-related scenarios, it is examined whether biases can occur in the assessment of probabilities and risks, as is the case in other professions. Both the conjunction fallacy and the base rate neglect could be demonstrated and are discussed in terms of their relevance for training and police work in general.</p>","PeriodicalId":46605,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11896-024-09689-4","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Statistics are used in the police, for example, to show changes in crime trends over time and to provide evidence for the effectiveness of crime prevention measures. Statistical literacy is the ability to understand and draw sound conclusions from statistical data; therefore, it contributes to professional competencies in police work. In the present study, the handling of statistics and probabilities by police commissioner trainees is examined in more detail, focusing on risk literacy. Using police-related scenarios, it is examined whether biases can occur in the assessment of probabilities and risks, as is the case in other professions. Both the conjunction fallacy and the base rate neglect could be demonstrated and are discussed in terms of their relevance for training and police work in general.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology is a peer-reviewed journal that reports research findings regarding the theory, practice and application of psychological issues in the criminal justice context, namely law enforcement, courts, and corrections. The Journal encourages submissions focusing on Police Psychology including personnel assessment, therapeutic methods, training, ethics and effective organizational operation. The Journal also welcomes articles that focus on criminal behavior and the application of psychology to effective correctional practices and facilitating recovery among victims of crime. Consumers of and contributors to this body of research include psychologists, criminologists, sociologists, legal experts, social workers, and other professionals representing various facets of the criminal justice system, both domestic and international.
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