A study of online academic risk prediction based on neural network multivariate time series features

Abstract

Neural networks are becoming increasingly widely used in various fields, especially for academic risk forecasts. Academic risk prediction is a hot topic in the field of big data in education that aims to identify and help students who experience great academic difficulties. In recent years, the use of machine learning algorithms and deep learning algorithms to achieve academic risk prediction has garnered increased attention and development. However, most of these studies use nontime series data as features for prediction, which are slightly insufficient in terms of timeliness. Therefore, this article focuses on time series data features that are more expressive of changes in students' learning status and uses multivariate time series data as predictive features. This article proposes a method based on multivariate time series features and a neural network to predict academic risk. The method includes three steps: first, the multivariate time series feature is extracted from the interaction records of the students' online learning platforms; second, the multivariate time series feature transformation model ROCKET is applied to convert the multivariate time series feature into a new feature; third, the new feature is converted into a final prediction result using a linear classification model. Comparative tests show that the proposed method has high effectiveness.