{"title":"Time series modelling of drought in a semi-arid region of south Gujarat, India","authors":"K A Jariwala, P G Agnihotri","doi":"10.1007/s12040-024-02357-5","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Abstract</h3><p>Gujarat is situated within a climatic spectrum ranging from arid to semi-arid, characterised by periodic and recurrent drought phenomena coupled with an enduring and consistent challenge of water scarcity. Drought events in the Gujarat region place substantial stress on its water resource infrastructure, thereby impacting not only the hydrological aspects but also exerting notable repercussions on the intricate interplay between agriculture, economics, and the broader societal domain. Despite the implementation of numerous legislations and protocols aimed at mitigating the impact of drought and ameliorating the aftermath, the state of Gujarat experiences a recurring pattern of drought, resurfacing approximately every three years and inflicting substantial disruption upon the lives of its residents. This research focuses on analysing the current drought scenarios using the standard precipitation index (SPI) and meteorological drought modelling using autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variable (ARIMAX) for identifying future drought conditions, which is a statistical modelling approach. Analysis of reference locations was carried out to identify the best model and the same model used for drought modelling and forecasting in the remaining locations. A meteorological drought risk map and drought frequency map were prepared using forecasting results. Model validation was done by computing RMSE and <i>R</i><sup>2</sup> of multiple locations in the entire region.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Research highlights</h3><ul>\n<li>\n<p>The study focuses on the recurring drought challenges faced by Gujarat due to its arid to semi-arid climate, leading to persistent water scarcity issues</p>\n</li>\n<li>\n<p>The research explores the intricate effects of droughts across hydrology, agriculture, economics, and society, highlighting their far-reaching consequences</p>\n</li>\n<li>\n<p>Despite mitigation efforts, a consistent drought pattern emerges approximately every three years, posing ongoing challenges to water resource management and societal stability</p>\n</li>\n<li>\n<p>The research employs a two-pronged strategy – utilising the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for assessing current drought conditions and leveraging the ARIMAX model for future predictions</p>\n</li>\n<li>\n<p>The ARIMAX model is carefully chosen and fine-tuned using reference locations to ensure accurate predictions across diverse geographical areas</p>\n</li>\n<li>\n<p>A significant outcome of the research is the development of drought risk maps, providing spatial insights into vulnerability levels and enabling targeted mitigation strategies</p>\n</li>\n<li>\n<p>The research rigorously validates the accuracy of its predictions using metrics such as root mean squared error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup>), enhancing the credibility of the findings</p>\n</li>\n<li>\n<p>The study reveals nuanced patterns, indicating that the west coast experiences frequent droughts, while inland areas face less frequent but longer-lasting events</p>\n</li>\n<li>\n<p>Understanding regional differences guides the formulation of customised approaches to address varying degrees of drought impact</p>\n</li>\n<li>\n<p>Through its comprehensive analysis, predictive capabilities, and spatial insights, the research equips stakeholders with actionable strategies to effectively manage and mitigate the recurring challenges posed by drought events</p>\n</li>\n</ul>","PeriodicalId":15609,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Earth System Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Earth System Science","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-024-02357-5","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Gujarat is situated within a climatic spectrum ranging from arid to semi-arid, characterised by periodic and recurrent drought phenomena coupled with an enduring and consistent challenge of water scarcity. Drought events in the Gujarat region place substantial stress on its water resource infrastructure, thereby impacting not only the hydrological aspects but also exerting notable repercussions on the intricate interplay between agriculture, economics, and the broader societal domain. Despite the implementation of numerous legislations and protocols aimed at mitigating the impact of drought and ameliorating the aftermath, the state of Gujarat experiences a recurring pattern of drought, resurfacing approximately every three years and inflicting substantial disruption upon the lives of its residents. This research focuses on analysing the current drought scenarios using the standard precipitation index (SPI) and meteorological drought modelling using autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variable (ARIMAX) for identifying future drought conditions, which is a statistical modelling approach. Analysis of reference locations was carried out to identify the best model and the same model used for drought modelling and forecasting in the remaining locations. A meteorological drought risk map and drought frequency map were prepared using forecasting results. Model validation was done by computing RMSE and R2 of multiple locations in the entire region.
Research highlights
The study focuses on the recurring drought challenges faced by Gujarat due to its arid to semi-arid climate, leading to persistent water scarcity issues
The research explores the intricate effects of droughts across hydrology, agriculture, economics, and society, highlighting their far-reaching consequences
Despite mitigation efforts, a consistent drought pattern emerges approximately every three years, posing ongoing challenges to water resource management and societal stability
The research employs a two-pronged strategy – utilising the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for assessing current drought conditions and leveraging the ARIMAX model for future predictions
The ARIMAX model is carefully chosen and fine-tuned using reference locations to ensure accurate predictions across diverse geographical areas
A significant outcome of the research is the development of drought risk maps, providing spatial insights into vulnerability levels and enabling targeted mitigation strategies
The research rigorously validates the accuracy of its predictions using metrics such as root mean squared error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2), enhancing the credibility of the findings
The study reveals nuanced patterns, indicating that the west coast experiences frequent droughts, while inland areas face less frequent but longer-lasting events
Understanding regional differences guides the formulation of customised approaches to address varying degrees of drought impact
Through its comprehensive analysis, predictive capabilities, and spatial insights, the research equips stakeholders with actionable strategies to effectively manage and mitigate the recurring challenges posed by drought events
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Earth System Science, an International Journal, was earlier a part of the Proceedings of the Indian Academy of Sciences – Section A begun in 1934, and later split in 1978 into theme journals. This journal was published as Proceedings – Earth and Planetary Sciences since 1978, and in 2005 was renamed ‘Journal of Earth System Science’.
The journal is highly inter-disciplinary and publishes scholarly research – new data, ideas, and conceptual advances – in Earth System Science. The focus is on the evolution of the Earth as a system: manuscripts describing changes of anthropogenic origin in a limited region are not considered unless they go beyond describing the changes to include an analysis of earth-system processes. The journal''s scope includes the solid earth (geosphere), the atmosphere, the hydrosphere (including cryosphere), and the biosphere; it also addresses related aspects of planetary and space sciences. Contributions pertaining to the Indian sub- continent and the surrounding Indian-Ocean region are particularly welcome. Given that a large number of manuscripts report either observations or model results for a limited domain, manuscripts intended for publication in JESS are expected to fulfill at least one of the following three criteria.
The data should be of relevance and should be of statistically significant size and from a region from where such data are sparse. If the data are from a well-sampled region, the data size should be considerable and advance our knowledge of the region.
A model study is carried out to explain observations reported either in the same manuscript or in the literature.
The analysis, whether of data or with models, is novel and the inferences advance the current knowledge.
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