Prevention capacity significantly reduced the livestock exposure to snow hazards across the Qinghai Plateau

Abstract

Livestock snow disaster is one of the most serious natural disasters in pastoral areas during cold seasons, leading to substantial livestock losses over the past few decades. Accurate assessment of livestock exposure is crucial for reducing the risk of livestock snow disaster, while much less is known about the livestock exposure due to the lack of available gridded livestock density data with long time series. In this study, the gridded density datasets of large livestock, sheep and total livestock at a spatial resolution of 1 km across the Qinghai Plateau (QP) during 1983–2018 were generated by developing livestock density models and disaggregating livestock census data. Then, the spatiotemporal patterns of livestock exposure to snow hazards in the QP were explored and the relative contributions of influencing factors (snow hazard, livestock density and prevention capacity) were quantified. There was a significant negative trend (p < 0.10) of −1.16 × 10⁶ standard sheep units (SSUs) decade⁻¹ in annual total livestock number and −4.67 × 10⁷ SSUs-day decade⁻¹ (p < 0.05) in annual total livestock exposure across the QP from 1983 to 2018. Spatially, snow hazard, livestock density and prevention capacity dominated the total livestock exposure changes in 38.11 %, 22.70 % and 34.95 % of pastoral areas, respectively. However, the reduction in total livestock exposure across the QP was primarily contributed by prevention capacity (56.13 %). This study provides a comprehensive understanding and scientific decision-making basis for livestock snow disaster mitigation and risk management, contributing to the high-quality development of pastoral areas.