Future Scenarios of Commercial Freight Shipping in the Euro-Asian Arctic

IF 3 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2024.103446

Elena Rovenskaya , Nikita Strelkovskii , Dmitry Erokhin , Leena Ilmola-Sheppard

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Abstract

As climate warms and modern technologies advance, the Artic waters may offer new opportunities for shipping, notably in the Euro-Asian Arctic. This paper presents five alternative scenarios for commercial destination and transit shipping in the region until 2050. Using a pluralistic backcasting approach to foresight, these scenarios were co-created by the authors of this paper together with thirteen experts in relevant fields from seven different countries. The scenario-building exercise integrated global and regional factors and demonstrated that the future of commercial shipping in the Arctic is subject to vast uncertainties in global politics and global development trajectory alongside the sea ice conditions and technological progress. While the current volumes of commercial shipping in the Euro-Asian Arctic are insignificant, its future will largely depend on the development of these factors and how they will interface with each other. Plausible futures of commercial shipping in the region range from extensive international transit shipping through the Northern Sea Route to restricted shipping by vessels with Arctic flags only or even no shipping, to shipping over the transpolar route. The scenarios presented here can be used to inform national policymaking as well as to support strategic decision-making within corporate entities operating in related industries.

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欧亚北极地区商业货运的未来展望

随着气候变暖和现代技术的发展，北极水域可能会为航运业提供新的机遇，尤其是在欧亚北极地区。本文介绍了 2050 年前该地区商业目的港和过境航运的五种备选方案。本文作者与来自 7 个不同国家的 13 位相关领域专家采用多元反向预测的展望方法，共同创建了这些情景。情景构建工作综合了全球和地区因素，表明北极地区商业航运的未来受到全球政治、全球发展轨迹以及海冰条件和技术进步等巨大不确定性的影响。虽然目前欧亚北极地区的商业航运量微不足道，但其未来将在很大程度上取决于这些因素的发展及其如何相互影响。该地区商业航运的合理前景包括：通过北方航道进行广泛的国际过境航运，限制只悬挂北极旗帜的船只进行航运，甚至不进行航运，以及通过跨极地航道进行航运。本文提出的设想方案可为国家决策提供信息，也可为相关行业企业实体的战略决策提供支持。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Futures Multiple-

CiteScore

6.00

自引率

10.00%

发文量

124

期刊介绍： Futures is an international, refereed, multidisciplinary journal concerned with medium and long-term futures of cultures and societies, science and technology, economics and politics, environment and the planet and individuals and humanity. Covering methods and practices of futures studies, the journal seeks to examine possible and alternative futures of all human endeavours. Futures seeks to promote divergent and pluralistic visions, ideas and opinions about the future. The editors do not necessarily agree with the views expressed in the pages of Futures