Does macroeconomic uncertainty (really) influence managers’ earnings management?

Abstract

We revisit the literature on using the economic policy uncertainty index (EPU) to estimate macroeconomic uncertainty¹. The extant literature has shown mixed evidence on whether macroeconomic uncertainty affects accounting quality. The EPU reflects unrepresentative political risks and thus is expected to substantially mismeasure economic uncertainty. This study investigates the association between macro uncertainty and earnings management by utilizing a novel and more unbiased measure of macro uncertainty, the gross domestic product (GDP) dispersion, and the volatility index (VIX). We find that firms engage more in earnings management when macroeconomic uncertainty is high, consistent with the notion that investors’ attention is limited due to information asymmetry providing earnings management opportunities. We also document that managers’ earnings management not only involves discretionary accruals but also real earnings management. The results are robust to controlling for firm characteristics, to an alternative measure of macroeconomic uncertainty, and to the endogeneity concern.