Analysis of the Financial Feasibility Study of Investment in Electricity Infrastructure Development Using the Monte Carlo Method Case Study of the Construction of GITET 500 kV Cikande

Abstract

The development of electricity infrastructure is an important part of the planning of the electric power system in order to ensure that the condition of the electricity system can meet the load growth plan while still paying attention to safety and economic factors. The 500 kV Cikande Extra High Voltage Substation (GITET) and its 150 kV Outlet are one of the infrastructures that will be built by PT PLN (Persero) with an operational target in accordance with the General Plan for the Provision of Electricity (RUPTL) for 2021 – 2030 in 2025. To be able to carry out the infrastructure development, PT PLN (Persero) needs to prepare a large enough investment fund so that it is necessary to carry out a financial feasibility analysis at the time the investment will be carried out, but the financial feasibility analysis currently carried out still uses a deterministic method, where the input parameters used in the calculation of financial feasibility have not considered the element of uncertainty/risk that will affect the output of the calculation of the financial feasibility study. In this study, the Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Payback Period (PbP) values will be tested against the required investment value by simulating changes in several input parameters simultaneously using the Monte Carlo method. This research aims to ensure that the investment issued by PT PLN (Persero) meets the parameters of financial feasibility by considering the element of uncertainty/risk in the future.