Does polymixis complicate prediction of high‐frequency dissolved oxygen in lakes and reservoirs?

IF 3.8 1区 地球科学 Q1 LIMNOLOGY
Caleb J. Robbins, Jeffrey M. Sadler, Dennis Trolle, Anders Nielsen, Nicole D. Wagner, J. Thad Scott
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Abstract

As lake and reservoir ecosystems transition across major environmental regimes (e.g., mixing regime) resulting from anthropogenic change, setting predictive expectations is imperative. We tested the hypothesis that (dissolved) oxygen is more predictable in monomictic reservoirs that thermally stratify throughout the summer (warm) season compared to polymictic reservoirs that stratify intermittently. Using two‐hourly vertical profiles of oxygen, we compared daily‐aggregated errors of oxygen predictions from random forests across and within two monomictic and two polymictic reservoirs in the south‐central (subtropical) USA. Although one monomictic reservoir was typically more predictable than the polymictic reservoirs, the hypereutrophic, small monomictic reservoir had less predictable oxygen patterns potentially related to rapid oxygen cycling and intrusions of oxygenated waters in the hypolimnion without mixing. Daily mixing did not relate strongly to model errors. Water temperature, depth, and wind were the most important predictors, but were not clearly related to season or mixing. Lastly, we compared multiple model types (regression, neural network, and process‐based) in one polymictic reservoir to test how our interpretations of oxygen predictability were sensitive to model type, finding that the models generally agreed; however, the process‐based model poorly predicted oxygen in the middle of the vertical profiles (5 m) where most models performed poorly due to a temporally unstable, vacillating metalimnion. Our results suggest predicting reservoir oxygen dynamics may be easier in stratified reservoirs, but eutrophication and complex hydrodynamics may cause forecasting surprises especially for those who use or manage water resources in mono‐ or dimictic reservoirs.
多混杂性是否会使湖泊和水库的高频溶解氧预测复杂化?
随着湖泊和水库生态系统在人为变化导致的主要环境体系(如混合体系)之间的过渡,设定预测期望值势在必行。我们测试了这样一个假设:与间歇分层的多态性水库相比,在整个夏季(温暖)热分层的单态性水库中,(溶解)氧的可预测性更高。利用每两小时一次的氧气垂直剖面图,我们比较了美国中南部(亚热带)两个单斜水库和两个多斜水库中随机森林对氧气预测的日汇总误差。虽然一个单斜水库比多斜水库更容易预测,但高富营养化的小型单斜水库的氧气模式较难预测,这可能与快速的氧循环和下盐层含氧水的侵入有关。日混合与模型误差关系不大。水温、水深和风是最重要的预测因素,但与季节或混合没有明显关系。最后,我们在一个多态水库中比较了多种模型类型(回归模型、神经网络模型和基于过程的模型),以检验我们对氧气可预测性的解释对模型类型的敏感程度,结果发现,这些模型的预测结果基本一致;但是,基于过程的模型对垂直剖面中部(5 米)的氧气预测较差,由于金属潮间带在时间上的不稳定性和波动性,大多数模型在该处的预测结果较差。我们的研究结果表明,在分层水库中预测水库氧动态可能更容易,但富营养化和复杂的水动力学可能会导致预测结果出人意料,尤其是对于那些在单斜或双斜水库中使用或管理水资源的人来说。
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来源期刊
Limnology and Oceanography
Limnology and Oceanography 地学-海洋学
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
6.70%
发文量
254
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Limnology and Oceanography (L&O; print ISSN 0024-3590, online ISSN 1939-5590) publishes original articles, including scholarly reviews, about all aspects of limnology and oceanography. The journal''s unifying theme is the understanding of aquatic systems. Submissions are judged on the originality of their data, interpretations, and ideas, and on the degree to which they can be generalized beyond the particular aquatic system examined. Laboratory and modeling studies must demonstrate relevance to field environments; typically this means that they are bolstered by substantial "real-world" data. Few purely theoretical or purely empirical papers are accepted for review.
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