Development and application of a simplified biophysical model to study deltaic and coastal ecosystems

Abstract

Many coastal regions around the globe experience land loss due to high relative sea level rise rates, declining sediment supply, and a host of other anthropogenic factors. To evaluate possible restoration strategies, we developed a computationally efficient Simplified Biophysical Model (SBM). The SBM includes hydrodynamic, morphodynamic, and marsh inundation components. The hydrodynamic and mineral sediment processes of the SBM are based on open source Delft3D models. The marsh inundation MATLAB module is a simplified vegetation response to salinity and inundation used to estimate annual organic accretion rates. Organic accretion is added annually to the morphodynamic calculations of mineral sediment. The typical run time for the SBM for an area of 4500 km² is ∼0.8, 2.5, and 4.7 days real time for one, three, and five decade simulations, respectively which is considered a computationally efficient for modeling decadal landscape evolution. The utility of the SBM was demonstrated through an application to assess the performance of a sediment diversion in the Barataria Basin in Louisiana, USA. The model results demonstrate the importance of incorporating the impact of salinity and inundation effects on the resilience of marshes subjected to high rates of relative sea level rise. Further, the sediment reduction analysis confirms the critical impact of the Mississippi River sediment decline on potential land building from sediment diversions where 1.5%, and 3% annual declining rates show a reduction in net land gain due to Mid-Barataria Sediment Diversion operation of 30% and 50 %, respectively. This highlights the importance of considering the Mississippi River sediment supply decline in restoration projects’ planning and specifically, sediment diversions.