Projections of mortality attributable to hot ambient temperatures in Cyprus under moderate and extreme climate change scenarios

IF 4.5 2区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Mingyue Ma , Panayiotis Kouis , Anderson Paulo Rudke , Maria Athanasiadou , Vasos Scoutellas , Filippos Tymvios , Kleanthis Nikolaidis , Petros Koutrakis , Panayiotis K. Yiallouros , Barrak Alahmad
{"title":"Projections of mortality attributable to hot ambient temperatures in Cyprus under moderate and extreme climate change scenarios","authors":"Mingyue Ma ,&nbsp;Panayiotis Kouis ,&nbsp;Anderson Paulo Rudke ,&nbsp;Maria Athanasiadou ,&nbsp;Vasos Scoutellas ,&nbsp;Filippos Tymvios ,&nbsp;Kleanthis Nikolaidis ,&nbsp;Petros Koutrakis ,&nbsp;Panayiotis K. Yiallouros ,&nbsp;Barrak Alahmad","doi":"10.1016/j.ijheh.2024.114439","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Heat-related mortality has become a growing public health concern in light of climate change. However, few studies have quantified the climate-attributable health burden in Cyprus, a recognized climate change hotspot. This study aims to estimate the heat-related mortality in Cyprus for all future decades in the 21st century under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and extreme (SSP5-8.5) climate scenarios.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>We applied distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the baseline associations between temperature and mortality from 2004 to 2019 (data obtained from Department of Meteorology of the Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment and the Health Monitoring Unit of the Cyprus Ministry of Health). The relationships were then extrapolated to future daily mean temperatures derived from downscaled global climate projections from General Circulation Models. Attributable number of deaths were calculated to determine the excess heat-related health burden compared to the baseline decade of 2000–2009 in the additive scale. The analysis process was repeated for all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and mortality among males, females, and adults younger or older than 65. We assumed a static population and demographic structure, no adaptation to hot temperatures over time, and did not evaluate potential interaction between temperature and humidity.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>Compared to 2000–2009, heat-related total mortality is projected to increase by 2.7% (95% empirical confidence interval: 0.6, 4.0) and 4.75% (2.2, 7.1) by the end of the century in the moderate and extreme climate scenarios, respectively. Cardiovascular disease is expected to be an important cause of heat-related death with projected increases of 3.4% (0.7, 5.1) and 6% (2.6, 9.0) by the end of the century. Reducing carbon emission to the moderate scenario can help avoid 75% of the predicted increase in all-cause heat-related mortality by the end of the century relative to the extreme scenario.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>Our findings suggest that climate change mitigation and sustainable adaptation strategies are crucial to reduce the anticipated heat-attributable health burden, particularly in Cyprus, where adaptation strategies such as air conditioning is nearing capacity.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13994,"journal":{"name":"International journal of hygiene and environmental health","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 114439"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International journal of hygiene and environmental health","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1438463924001202","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"INFECTIOUS DISEASES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Heat-related mortality has become a growing public health concern in light of climate change. However, few studies have quantified the climate-attributable health burden in Cyprus, a recognized climate change hotspot. This study aims to estimate the heat-related mortality in Cyprus for all future decades in the 21st century under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and extreme (SSP5-8.5) climate scenarios.

Methods

We applied distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the baseline associations between temperature and mortality from 2004 to 2019 (data obtained from Department of Meteorology of the Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment and the Health Monitoring Unit of the Cyprus Ministry of Health). The relationships were then extrapolated to future daily mean temperatures derived from downscaled global climate projections from General Circulation Models. Attributable number of deaths were calculated to determine the excess heat-related health burden compared to the baseline decade of 2000–2009 in the additive scale. The analysis process was repeated for all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and mortality among males, females, and adults younger or older than 65. We assumed a static population and demographic structure, no adaptation to hot temperatures over time, and did not evaluate potential interaction between temperature and humidity.

Results

Compared to 2000–2009, heat-related total mortality is projected to increase by 2.7% (95% empirical confidence interval: 0.6, 4.0) and 4.75% (2.2, 7.1) by the end of the century in the moderate and extreme climate scenarios, respectively. Cardiovascular disease is expected to be an important cause of heat-related death with projected increases of 3.4% (0.7, 5.1) and 6% (2.6, 9.0) by the end of the century. Reducing carbon emission to the moderate scenario can help avoid 75% of the predicted increase in all-cause heat-related mortality by the end of the century relative to the extreme scenario.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that climate change mitigation and sustainable adaptation strategies are crucial to reduce the anticipated heat-attributable health burden, particularly in Cyprus, where adaptation strategies such as air conditioning is nearing capacity.

中度和极端气候变化情景下塞浦路斯高温环境温度导致的死亡率预测
在气候变化的影响下,与热相关的死亡已成为一个日益严重的公共卫生问题。然而,在塞浦路斯这个公认的气候变化热点地区,很少有研究对气候引起的健康负担进行量化。本研究旨在估算 21 世纪中度(SSP2-4.5)和极端(SSP5-8.5)气候情景下塞浦路斯未来几十年与热相关的死亡率。我们采用分布式滞后非线性模型估算了 2004 年至 2019 年期间气温与死亡率之间的基线关系(数据来自农业、农村发展与环境部气象局和塞浦路斯卫生部健康监测部门)。然后,将这些关系推断到根据大气环流模型的全球气候预测降尺度得出的未来日平均气温。计算了可归因的死亡人数,以确定与 2000-2009 年基线十年相比,与热相关的健康负担的增加值。对全因死亡率、心血管死亡率、呼吸系统死亡率以及男性、女性和 65 岁以下或 65 岁以上成年人的死亡率重复进行了分析。我们假设人口和人口结构是静态的,随着时间的推移不会适应高温,并且没有评估温度和湿度之间的潜在相互作用。与 2000-2009 年相比,预计到本世纪末,在中度和极端气候情景下,与热相关的总死亡率将分别增加 2.7% (95% 经验置信区间:0.6, 4.0)和 4.75% (2.2, 7.1)。预计到本世纪末,心血管疾病将成为热相关死亡的重要原因,预计增幅分别为 3.4% (0.7, 5.1) 和 6% (2.6, 9.0)。与极端情景相比,将碳排放量减少到中等情景,有助于避免到本世纪末与热有关的全因死亡率预计增长的 75%。我们的研究结果表明,减缓气候变化和可持续的适应战略对于减少预期的热导致的健康负担至关重要,尤其是在塞浦路斯,因为那里的空调等适应战略已接近饱和。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
CiteScore
11.50
自引率
5.00%
发文量
151
审稿时长
22 days
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health serves as a multidisciplinary forum for original reports on exposure assessment and the reactions to and consequences of human exposure to the biological, chemical, and physical environment. Research reports, short communications, reviews, scientific comments, technical notes, and editorials will be peer-reviewed before acceptance for publication. Priority will be given to articles on epidemiological aspects of environmental toxicology, health risk assessments, susceptible (sub) populations, sanitation and clean water, human biomonitoring, environmental medicine, and public health aspects of exposure-related outcomes.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信