Understanding the Impact of Military Service on Support for Insurrection in the United States

IF 2.2 1区社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI:10.1177/00220027241267216

Robert A. Pape, Keven G. Ruby, Kyle D. Larson, Kentaro Nakamura

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Why do some individuals with military experience support the insurrection of January 6? With US military veterans playing a central role in the assault on the US Capitol, answering this question is of immediate scholarly and policy concern. To better understand the impact of military service, we conducted the first nationally representative survey of support for pro-Trump anti-democratic violence (“insurrectionist sentiments”) among US military veterans and a demographically matched sample of non-veterans. Our analysis finds veterans nearly twice as likely to hold high insurrectionist sentiments than non-veterans, and that military service increases support for restoring Trump to the presidency by force by 15 percent. Further, we find the effect veterancy is not fully explained by veterans being more likely to hold pro-Trump or conspiracy beliefs but is associated with negative military and post-service-related experiences. These findings are robust to significant unobserved confounding. We conclude with implications for future research on political violence and the role of the military in American democracy.

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了解服兵役对支持美国叛乱的影响

为什么一些有从军经历的人支持 1 月 6 日的叛乱？由于美国退伍军人在袭击美国国会大厦的事件中扮演了核心角色，回答这个问题是学术界和政策界的当务之急。为了更好地了解服兵役的影响，我们首次在美国退伍军人和人口匹配的非退伍军人样本中开展了支持亲特朗普反民主暴力（"叛乱情绪"）的全国代表性调查。我们的分析发现，与非退伍军人相比，退伍军人持有高叛乱情绪的可能性几乎是后者的两倍，而且服兵役会使通过武力恢复特朗普总统职位的支持率增加 15%。此外，我们发现退伍军人的影响并不能完全解释为退伍军人更有可能持有亲特朗普或阴谋论信仰，而是与消极的军队和服役后相关经历有关。这些发现对重大的非观察混杂因素具有稳健性。最后，我们总结了未来研究政治暴力和军队在美国民主中的作用的意义。

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来源期刊

Journal of Conflict Resolution Multiple-

CiteScore

5.30

自引率

9.70%

发文量

101

期刊介绍： The Journal of Conflict Resolution is an interdisciplinary journal of social scientific theory and research on human conflict. It focuses especially on international conflict, but its pages are open to a variety of contributions about intergroup conflict, as well as between nations, that may help in understanding problems of war and peace. Reports about innovative applications, as well as basic research, are welcomed, especially when the results are of interest to scholars in several disciplines.