The molecular prognostic score, a classifier for risk stratification of high-grade serous ovarian cancer.

Abstract

Background: The clinicopathological parameters such as residual tumor, grade, the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) score are often used to predict the survival of ovarian cancer patients, but the 5-year survival of high grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC) still remains around 30%. Hence, the relentless pursuit of enhanced prognostic tools for HGSOC, this study introduces an unprecedented gene expression-based molecular prognostic score (mPS). Derived from a novel 20-gene signature through Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO)-Cox regression, the mPS stands out for its predictive prowess.

Results: Validation across diverse datasets, including training and test sets (n = 491 each) and a large HGSOC patient cohort from the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis (OTTA) consortium (n = 7542), consistently shows an area-under-curve (AUC) around 0.7 for predicting 5-year overall survival. The mPS's impact on prognosis resonates profoundly, yielding an adjusted hazard-ratio (HR) of 6.1 (95% CI: 3.65-10.3; p < 0.001), overshadowing conventional parameters-FIGO score, residual disease, and age. Molecular insights gleaned from mPS stratification uncover intriguing pathways, with focal-adhesion, Wnt, and Notch signaling upregulated, and antigen processing and presentation downregulated (p < 0.001) in high-risk HGSOC cohorts.

Conclusion: Positioned as a robust prognostic marker, the 20-gene signature-derived mPS emerges as a potential game-changer in clinical settings. Beyond its role in predicting overall survival, its implications extend to guiding alternative therapies, especially targeting Wnt/Notch signaling pathways and immune evasion-a promising avenue for improving outcomes in high-risk HGSOC patients.