Crop mapping and quantitative evaluation of cultivated land use intensity in Shandong Province, 2018–2022

Abstract

Industrialization and urbanization have intensified land-use pressures on agroecosystems. Monitoring cultivated land use intensity (CLUI) is crucial for implementing sustainable agriculture. However, current agroecosystem management in Shandong Province lacks high-resolution CLUI information. To address this gap, this study measured and analyzed CLUI at a 1-km scale in Shandong Province from 2018 to 2022, using self-produced crop maps and the human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) framework. The spatial autocorrelation model was used to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern and aggregation characteristics of cultivated land use intensity. The influencing factors of CLUI were analyzed using the propensity score matching method, which helps reduce the interference of confounding factors. The results are as follows: (1) The wheat-maize planting pattern in Shandong Province has remained relatively stable, with a notable trend toward intensified cultivation in the western region. (2) CLUI exhibited notable spatial and temporal heterogeneity, with low and medium values predominantly located in the western region. CLUI increased from 1.13 to 1.24, exceeding the global average of 0.84. (3) CLUI showed significant spatial aggregation characteristics. In 2018, 2020, and 2022, the western region was mainly characterized by high-high and high-low types. In 2019 and 2021, it was mainly characterized by the low-low type, with less prevalence of low-high type. The center of gravity of high-high and low-high types shifted southwest, whereas that of high-low and low-low types shifted northeast. (4) Chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and plastic mulch exhibited significant positive correlations with CLUI, whereas temperature and precipitation showed significant negative correlations. Favorable natural conditions can mitigate human interference, leading to lower CLUI.