{"title":"Risk factors and nomogram predictive model of severe postoperative complications in elderly patients with intertrochanteric fractures.","authors":"Ping Xu, Yanqiu Xu","doi":"10.12669/pjms.40.7.9242","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To analyze risk factors of severe postoperative complications in elderly patients with intertrochanteric fractures (ITF), and to construct a predictive model.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The medical records of 316 elderly patients with ITF who underwent surgical treatment in Suzhou Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine from January 2020 to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors of severe postoperative complications. A nomogram prediction model was constructed using the RMS package of R4.1.2 software. Accuracy and stability of the model was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and decision curve analysis.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grading, combined medical diseases, preoperative bedridden condition, frailty, and preoperative albumin levels were all risk factors for severe postoperative complications in ITF patients were noted. These factors were then used to build a risk prediction model that had an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.899 (95% confidence interval (<i>CI)</i>: 0.846-0.951). The internal validation results of the Bootstrap method showed that the C-index value of the model was 0.899, and the calibration curve had a good fit with the ideal curve.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Age, ASA grading, combined medical diseases, preoperative bedridden condition, frailty, and preoperative albumin levels were independent risk factors for severe postoperative complications in elderly ITF patients. The constructed prediction model based on the above risk factors has a high predictive value.</p>","PeriodicalId":19958,"journal":{"name":"Pakistan Journal of Medical Sciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11255789/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Pakistan Journal of Medical Sciences","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.12669/pjms.40.7.9242","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Objective: To analyze risk factors of severe postoperative complications in elderly patients with intertrochanteric fractures (ITF), and to construct a predictive model.
Methods: The medical records of 316 elderly patients with ITF who underwent surgical treatment in Suzhou Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine from January 2020 to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors of severe postoperative complications. A nomogram prediction model was constructed using the RMS package of R4.1.2 software. Accuracy and stability of the model was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and decision curve analysis.
Results: Age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grading, combined medical diseases, preoperative bedridden condition, frailty, and preoperative albumin levels were all risk factors for severe postoperative complications in ITF patients were noted. These factors were then used to build a risk prediction model that had an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.899 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.846-0.951). The internal validation results of the Bootstrap method showed that the C-index value of the model was 0.899, and the calibration curve had a good fit with the ideal curve.
Conclusions: Age, ASA grading, combined medical diseases, preoperative bedridden condition, frailty, and preoperative albumin levels were independent risk factors for severe postoperative complications in elderly ITF patients. The constructed prediction model based on the above risk factors has a high predictive value.
期刊介绍:
It is a peer reviewed medical journal published regularly since 1984. It was previously known as quarterly "SPECIALIST" till December 31st 1999. It publishes original research articles, review articles, current practices, short communications & case reports. It attracts manuscripts not only from within Pakistan but also from over fifty countries from abroad.
Copies of PJMS are sent to all the import medical libraries all over Pakistan and overseas particularly in South East Asia and Asia Pacific besides WHO EMRO Region countries. Eminent members of the medical profession at home and abroad regularly contribute their write-ups, manuscripts in our publications. We pursue an independent editorial policy, which allows an opportunity to the healthcare professionals to express their views without any fear or favour. That is why many opinion makers among the medical and pharmaceutical profession use this publication to communicate their viewpoint.