Unraveling the global burden of inflammatory bowel disease (1990–2019): A Joinpoint regression analysis of divergent trends in 10–24 and 50–69 age cohorts

Abstract

Background and aims

The escalating prevalence of IBD within specific age cohorts, 10–24 and 50–69 years, necessitates a refined understanding of its epidemiological patterns. Prior investigations have often been constrained by their limited scope, particularly in employing age-specific analyses and utilizing advanced statistical methods such as joinpoint regression. Our research examines these demographic segments to elucidate the epidemiological trajectory of IBD.

Methods

This study analyzed GBD 2019 data on IBD, focusing on age groups 10–24 and 50–69. We integrated the socio-demographic index for socio-economic context and employed joinpoint regression to analyze time-segmented disease trends, prioritizing average annual percent change for a comprehensive view.

Results

A notable global decline in IBD incidence, particularly in the 50–69 age group, was observed. The 10–24 cohort, however, presented a marginal rise across three decades, with a discernible decline between 2010 and 2019. The study also revealed pivotal gender disparities, with increasing incidence rates in males, especially in the High-income Asia Pacific region. Conversely, females demonstrated decreasing trends across the board. Regional variations accentuated East Asia's escalated IBD incidence and prevalence, whereas high-income North American and Asia-Pacific regions, along with Europe, reflected the highest age-standardized incidence rates.

Conclusion

The burden of IBD between 1990 and 2019 presents notable disparities across different regions and age demographics. While older populations are seeing a decrease in IBD incidence, young adults and adolescents in regions like East Asia and high-income Asia Pacific are experiencing a concerning uptick. This uneven distribution, influenced by both age and gender, underscores the multifaceted nature of IBD's global impact.