Ecological debts induced by heat extremes.

Abstract

Heat extremes have become the new norm in the Anthropocene. Their potential to trigger major ecological responses is widely acknowledged, but their unprecedented severity hinders our ability to predict the magnitude of such responses, both during and after extreme heat events. To address this challenge we propose a conceptual framework inspired by the core concepts of ecological stability and thermal biology to depict how responses of populations and communities accumulate at three response stages (exposure, resistance, and recovery). Biological mechanisms mitigating responses at a given stage incur associated costs that only become apparent at other response stages; these are known as 'ecological debts'. We outline several scenarios for how ecological responses associate with debts to better understand biodiversity changes caused by heat extremes.