Very short-term wind power forecasting for real-time operation using hybrid deep learning model with optimization algorithm

Abstract

This paper proposes a new hybrid deep learning model to enhance the accuracy of forecasting very short-term wind power generation. The proposed model comprises a convolutional layer, a long-short-term memory (LSTM) unit, and fully connected neural network. Convolution layer can automatically learn complicated features from the raw input, whereas the LSTM layers can retain useful information through which gradient information may flow over extended periods. To obtain the best performance from the forecasting model, a random search optimization technique has been developed for tuning hyper-parameters of the model developed. The 5 min datasets from the White Rock wind farm, Australia are used to investigate the effectiveness of the proposed model as wind farms are participating in spot electricity market. To compare the effectiveness, the proposed model is compared with the existing models, such as convolution neural network (CNN), LSTM, gated recurrent unit (GRU), bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), artificial neural network (ANN), and support vector machine (SVM). The root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and Theil’s inequality coefficient (TIC) are used to analyze and compare the performances of the predictive models. Based on RMSE and MAE, the proposed model exhibits a higher accuracy of approximately 23.79% and 28.63% compared to other forecasting methods, respectively.