How to Achieve a 50% Reduction in Nutrient Losses From Agricultural Catchments Under Different Climate Trajectories?

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI:10.1029/2023EF004299
Maarten Wynants, Johan Strömqvist, Lukas Hallberg, John Livsey, Göran Lindström, Magdalena Bieroza
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Abstract

Under persistent eutrophication of European water bodies and a changing climate, there is an increasing need to evaluate best-management practices for reducing nutrient losses from agricultural catchments. In this study, we set up a daily discharge and water quality model in Hydrological Predictions of the Environment for two agricultural catchments representative for common cropping systems in Europe's humid continental regions to forecast the impacts of future climate trajectories on nutrient loads. The model predicted a slight increase in inorganic nitrogen (IN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads under RCP2.6, likely due to precipitation-driven mobilization. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the IN loads were forecasted to decrease from 16% to 26% and 21%–50% respectively, most likely due to temperature-driven increases in crop uptake and evapotranspiration. No distinct trends in TP loads were observed. A 50% decrease in nutrient loads, as targeted by the European Green Deal, was backcasted using a combination of management scenarios, including (a) a 20% reduction in mineral fertilizer application, (b) introducing cover crops (CC), and (c) stream mitigation (SM) by introducing floodplains. Target TP load reductions could only be achieved by SM, which likely results from secondary mobilization of sources within agricultural streams during high discharge events. Target IN load reductions were backcasted with a combination of SM, fertilizer reduction, and CC, wherein the required measures depended strongly on the climatic trajectory. Overall, this study successfully demonstrated a modeling approach for evaluating best-management practices under diverging climate change trajectories, tailored to the catchment characteristics and specific nutrient reduction targets.

Abstract Image

如何在不同气候轨迹下实现农业集水区养分流失减少 50%?
在欧洲水体持续富营养化和气候不断变化的情况下,越来越需要对减少农业集水区营养流失的最佳管理方法进行评估。在这项研究中,我们在《环境水文预测》中为欧洲湿润大陆地区两个具有代表性的农业集水区建立了日排放和水质模型,以预测未来气候轨迹对营养物质负荷的影响。该模型预测,在 RCP2.6 条件下,无机氮(IN)和总磷(TP)负荷会略有增加,这可能是由于降水驱动的迁移所致。在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 条件下,预计无机氮负荷将分别减少 16% 至 26% 和 21% 至 50%,这很可能是由于温度导致作物吸收和蒸散量增加。在 TP 负荷方面没有观察到明显的趋势。根据欧洲 "绿色协议 "的目标,采用多种管理方案,包括(a)减少 20% 的矿物肥料施用量,(b)引入覆盖作物(CC),以及(c)通过引入泛滥平原减缓溪流(SM),对养分负荷减少 50%的目标进行了反向预测。目标 TP 负荷削减量只能通过 SM 来实现,这可能是由于在高排放事件期间农业溪流内的二次动员造成的。目标 IN 负荷削减量是通过 SM、减少化肥用量和 CC 的组合来实现的,其中所需的措施在很大程度上取决于气候轨迹。总之,这项研究成功地展示了一种在不同气候变化轨迹下评估最佳管理方法的建模方法,该方法是根据集水区的特点和具体的养分减排目标量身定制的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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