Projected navigability of Arctic shipping routes based on climate model FIO-ESM v2.1

IF 3.3 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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Abstract

As Arctic sea ice has rapidly declined, the navigational potential of the Arctic routes has greatly increased. Based on sea ice output from the First Institute Of Oceanography-Earth System Model version 2.1 (FIO-ESM v2.1) and the Arctic Transport Accessibility Model, this study investigates the future navigability of the Arctic routes for open-water ships (OW) without icebreaking capabilities and ships with different icebreaking capabilities, namely Polar Class 7 (PC7), Polar Class 6 (PC6), and Polar Class 3 (PC3). The results show that the simulations of FIO-ESM v2.1 adequately reproduce the changes in the navigability of the four types of ships in Arctic shipping routes over the past 40 years. The navigable area for the four ship types is projected to continue to expand in the future. Under the high emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5–8.5, SSP585), the four ship types are projected to achieve full Arctic navigability in summer (September) by the end of the 21st century, and PC6 and PC3 ships are projected to achieve full Arctic navigability in winter (March). Under the high emission scenario, year-round navigability in the Northwest Passage is projected for PC3 and PC6 ships, and in the Northeast Passage is projected for all four types of ships. The impact of emission scenario on the navigability of the Arctic shipping routes varies with different ship types: the largest impact is for OW ships, followed by PC6 and PC7 ships, and the smallest impact is for PC3 ships. The impact of scenario is also larger in winter than in summer.

根据气候模型 FIO-ESM v2.1 预测的北极航道通航能力
随着北极海冰的迅速减少,北极航线的通航潜力大大增加。本研究基于第一海洋研究所-地球系统模型 2.1 版(FIO-ESM v2.1)的海冰输出和北极运输可达性模型,研究了不具备破冰能力的开阔水域船舶(OW)和具备不同破冰能力的船舶(即极地 7 级(PC7)、极地 6 级(PC6)和极地 3 级(PC3))未来在北极航线上的通航能力。结果表明,FIO-ESM v2.1 的模拟充分再现了过去 40 年来四类船舶在北极航道上的通航能力变化。预计未来四种类型船舶的通航区域将继续扩大。在高排放情景下(共享社会经济路径 5-8.5,SSP585),预计到 21 世纪末,四种类型的船舶将在夏季(9 月)实现完全北极通航,PC6 和 PC3 船舶将在冬季(3 月)实现完全北极通航。在高排放情景下,预计 PC3 和 PC6 船舶在西北航道全年通航,所有四种类型船舶在东北航道全年通航。排放情景对北极航道通航性的影响因船舶类型而异:影响最大的是 OW 型船舶,其次是 PC6 和 PC7 型船舶,影响最小的是 PC3 型船舶。排放情景在冬季的影响也大于夏季。
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来源期刊
Anthropocene
Anthropocene Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
6.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
27
审稿时长
102 days
期刊介绍: Anthropocene is an interdisciplinary journal that publishes peer-reviewed works addressing the nature, scale, and extent of interactions that people have with Earth processes and systems. The scope of the journal includes the significance of human activities in altering Earth’s landscapes, oceans, the atmosphere, cryosphere, and ecosystems over a range of time and space scales - from global phenomena over geologic eras to single isolated events - including the linkages, couplings, and feedbacks among physical, chemical, and biological components of Earth systems. The journal also addresses how such alterations can have profound effects on, and implications for, human society. As the scale and pace of human interactions with Earth systems have intensified in recent decades, understanding human-induced alterations in the past and present is critical to our ability to anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to changes in the future. The journal aims to provide a venue to focus research findings, discussions, and debates toward advancing predictive understanding of human interactions with Earth systems - one of the grand challenges of our time.
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