Resilience, remoteness and war shape the land cover dynamics in one of the world's largest miombo woodlands

Abstract

The highlands of southeast Angola are one of the world's largest intact formations of miombo woodland. Recent interest from conservation groups is increasing the possibility of a new protected area in this conflict-afflicted, remote region, contributing to the “30 × 30” target of the Global Biodiversity Framework. With the potential for a new protected area, it is important to quantify the extent and change of natural and anthropogenic land covers in the region, not least because of the close dependence of livelihoods on natural resources in the miombo. We developed a 1990–2020 land cover time series, analysing deforestation, canopy opening, canopy closure, and vegetation regrowth after disturbance. Regional woodland extent has remained roughly constant despite frequent transitions between dense and open woodlands. Canopy opening peaked post-civil war, potentially related to the resettlement of displaced people. Over 30 years, 61 % ± 2 % of canopy opening was offset by subsequent canopy closure, which peaked a decade after the war ended, indicating the resilience of miombo systems. A woodland resource-use frontier, consisting of deforestation and canopy opening, is evident in the north-west of the area, likely driven by urban demand for agricultural products, charcoal, timber and other wood-derived goods. A distinct “core” of dynamic woodland occupies 52 % of the study region, where there is no evidence that shifting cultivation and local livelihoods are a net cause of land cover change. We do not find evidence for extensive net woody encroachment, only 2 % of the study region is being encroached by woody vegetation. This canopy closure is associated with remoteness from anthropogenic pressures and biophysical drivers that facilitate woody vegetation growth. Policymakers and conservation managers can use these data to aid in locating and prioritising interventions to sustainably produce agricultural and wood fuel products to meet increasing urban demand. Additionally, supporting conditions for maintaining both biophysical processes and livelihoods in remote areas is crucial to achieving 30 × 30 equitably.