Factors influencing the pricing of credit risk mitigation warrants in corporate bond financing

Abstract

In 2022, various Chinese regulatory authorities, including the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), jointly issued documents and convened seminars at the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges to highlight the importance of credit protection tools, particularly credit risk mitigation warrants (CRMWs), to bolster corporate bond market financing. However, empirical research on the factors influencing CRMW prices in the Chinese market remains scarce. This study examines the factors affecting CRMW creation prices using a sample of CRMWs issued between 2018 and 2023 and analyzes the macroeconomic factors, characteristics of the underlying issuers, and related financial instruments. This study employs Shapley decomposition to evaluate the contribution of each variable. The findings reveal that, on the macroeconomic front, the year-on-year GDP growth rate from the previous quarter and the loan balance of financial institutions significantly and negatively impact CRMW prices. Regarding the underlying issuers, the issuer's credit rating and return on net assets significantly negatively affect CRMW prices, whereas the asset–liability ratio and issuer age have a significant positive impact. Additionally, related financial instruments such as bond interest rates and the risk mitigation certificate term positively contribute to the coverage of the underlying bond term and have a significant positive impact on CRMW prices.