Trade Creation or Diversion?—Evidence from China’s Forest Wood Product Trade

Abstract

In recent years, trade protectionism and unilateralism have prevailed, and countries around the world have imposed restrictions on log exports. It has also become more difficult for China to import wood resources and export deep-processed wood forest products. Based on panel data from 2000 to 2019, this study uses social network analysis to measure the level of the Chinese wood forest product trade network, takes the Chinese free trade agreements (FTAs) as the natural experiment, and uses the multi-stage double-difference method to investigate the impact of the signed FTAs on China’s wood forest product trade. The study finds that the trade network of Chinese wood forest products is becoming increasingly complex, and the central position of China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the network is increasing year by year. The signing of FTAs has had a significant positive impact on the trade of wood forest products in China and a significant trade creation effect. This finding remains true after conducting the placebo test and propensity score-matched regression control. At the same time, the import of wood forest products in China will have a significant trade transfer effect due to the signing of FTAs, and this will not affect exports. Although FTAs show significant trade creation and trade transfer effects in China’s wood forest product trade, they also increase, to a certain extent, the mismatch of forest resources worldwide.