Captain Mayor and Sergeant Councilman? An Assessment of the Reach of Military Politicization in Brazilian Politics

Abstract

Civilian control of the armed forces and the absence of military politicization are fundamental democratic norms. In recent years, some democratically elected national leaders, including former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, have subverted these norms. In this article, we, first, evaluate whether the increased national political involvement of the armed forces in Brazil extends to the realm of local politics and, second, discern whether conditions- and demand-based theories explain local-level trends. To do this, we descriptively assess candidacies from 21st-century Brazilian municipal elections and estimate a series of municipality- and multi-level regression models exclusively for the 2020 round. We learn that national politicization has coincided with a marked increase in the number of military candidates, conceptualized as those who use military titles in their electoral campaigns, in Brazilian mayoral and city councilor contests and that municipal support for Bolsonaro is positively associated with military candidates contesting local elections, in line with conditions-based theories, sounding the alarm bells of civil–military weakening.