Machine Learning for Predicting Stillbirth: A Systematic Review.

Abstract

Stillbirth is a major global issue, with over 5 million cases each year. The multifactorial nature of stillbirth makes it difficult to predict. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have the potential to enhance clinical decision-making and enable precise assessments. This study reviewed the literature on predictive ML models for stillbirth highlighting input characteristics, performance metrics, and validation. The PubMed, Cochrane, and Web of Science databases were searched for studies using AI to develop predictive models for stillbirth. Findings were analyzed qualitatively using narrative synthesis and graphics. Risk of bias and the applicability of the studies were assessed using PROBAST. Model design and performance were discussed. Eight studies involving 14,840,654 women with gestational ages ranging from 20 weeks to full term were included in the qualitative analysis. Most studies used neural networks, random forests, and logistic regression algorithms. The number of predictive features varied from 14 to 53. Only 50% of studies validated the models. Cross-validation was commonly employed, and only 25% of studies performed external validation. All studies reported area under the curve as a performance metric (range 0.54-0.9), and five studies reported sensitivity (range, 60- 90%) and specificity (range, 64 - 93.3%). A stacked ensemble model that analyzed 53 features performed better than other models (AUC = 0.9; sensitivity and specificity > 85%). Available ML models can attain a considerable degree of accuracy for prediction of stillbirth; however, these models require further development before they can be applied in a clinical setting.