{"title":"The Potential Role of Seasonal Surface Heating on the Chaotic Origins of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation Spring Predictability Barrier","authors":"Dakuan Yu, Meng Zhou, Chaoxun Hang","doi":"10.1029/2024JD041034","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Spring Predictability Barrier (SPB) phenomenon is characterized by the reduced accuracy of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts during the spring, which substantially limits our ability to predict ENSO events. By investigating the nonlinear dynamic characteristics of ENSO systems simulated by a box model, we found that the strong surface heating process in spring may contribute to the SPB by regulating the different coupling processes between the ocean and atmosphere. Specifically, the intensified springtime surface heating increases the Sea Surface Temperature (SST), further amplifying the thermal damping effect of SST anomalies and reducing the dynamic connection between zonal SST gradient and upwelling process, and finally increasing the chaotic degree of ENSO systems simulated by the box model. The enhanced chaotic degree of ENSO systems leads to a more rapid growth of initial errors in the forecast model in spring, potentially leading to the SPB phenomenon.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JD041034","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024JD041034","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The Spring Predictability Barrier (SPB) phenomenon is characterized by the reduced accuracy of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts during the spring, which substantially limits our ability to predict ENSO events. By investigating the nonlinear dynamic characteristics of ENSO systems simulated by a box model, we found that the strong surface heating process in spring may contribute to the SPB by regulating the different coupling processes between the ocean and atmosphere. Specifically, the intensified springtime surface heating increases the Sea Surface Temperature (SST), further amplifying the thermal damping effect of SST anomalies and reducing the dynamic connection between zonal SST gradient and upwelling process, and finally increasing the chaotic degree of ENSO systems simulated by the box model. The enhanced chaotic degree of ENSO systems leads to a more rapid growth of initial errors in the forecast model in spring, potentially leading to the SPB phenomenon.
期刊介绍:
JGR: Atmospheres publishes articles that advance and improve understanding of atmospheric properties and processes, including the interaction of the atmosphere with other components of the Earth system.