Geopolitical risks and business fluctuations in Europe: A sectorial analysis

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102585

Fredj Jawadi , Philippe Rozin , Yacouba Gnegne , Abdoulkarim Idi Cheffou

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Should Europe Really Worry about Geopolitical Risks? This study investigates the impact of geopolitical tensions and risks on the economies of the Euro area. In particular, we assess the reaction of key sectors (financial sector: stock market, exchange rate, inflation; energy sector: oil and gas; real sector: economic growth rate) with regard to geopolitical shocks over the period September 2003–March 2024. We measure the reaction of European economies to global geopolitical risks, as well as risks related to geopolitical events and threats. To this end, we adopted the ARDL model and bound tests to estimate the effects of geopolitical risks in the short and long terms. Our findings present two interesting results. First, geopolitical risks can reduce economic growth and provoke depreciation of the euro. Second, geopolitical tensions can increase inflation and put pressure on Brent oil and gas prices in Europe. The European stock market seems more resilient to geopolitical shocks, however. Finally, adverse geopolitical events are also associated with greater economic and political uncertainty in Europe.

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欧洲地缘政治风险与商业波动：行业分析

欧洲真的应该担心地缘政治风险吗？本研究调查了地缘政治紧张局势和风险对欧元区经济的影响。特别是，我们评估了 2003 年 9 月至 2024 年 3 月期间主要部门（金融部门：股市、汇率、通货膨胀；能源部门：石油和天然气；实体部门：经济增长率）对地缘政治冲击的反应。我们衡量欧洲经济体对全球地缘政治风险的反应，以及与地缘政治事件和威胁相关的风险。为此，我们采用了 ARDL 模型和约束检验来估计地缘政治风险在短期和长期的影响。我们的研究结果呈现出两个有趣的结果。首先，地缘政治风险会降低经济增长并引发欧元贬值。其次，地缘政治紧张局势会加剧通货膨胀，并对欧洲的布伦特石油和天然气价格造成压力。不过，欧洲股市似乎更能抵御地缘政治的冲击。最后，不利的地缘政治事件也与欧洲经济和政治的更大不确定性有关。

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来源期刊

European Journal of Political Economy Multiple-

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

10.00%

发文量

106

期刊介绍： The aim of the European Journal of Political Economy is to disseminate original theoretical and empirical research on economic phenomena within a scope that encompasses collective decision making, political behavior, and the role of institutions. Contributions are invited from the international community of researchers. Manuscripts must be published in English. Starting 2008, the European Journal of Political Economy is indexed in the Social Sciences Citation Index published by Thomson Scientific (formerly ISI).