Strawberries in a warming world: examining the ecological niche of Fragaria×ananassa Duch. Across different climate scenarios

IF 1.5 4区农林科学 Q3 PLANT SCIENCES

Journal of Berry Research Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI:10.3233/jbr-240012

Lidiane Rodrigues da Silva, Fausto Henrique Vieira Araújo, Sabrina Rodrigues Ferreira, José Carlos Barbosa dos Santos, Caique Menezes de Abreu, Ricardo Siqueira da Silva, Márcia Regina da Costa

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

BACKGROUND:Strawberry (Fragaria×ananassa Duch.) is a species of great economic and nutritional importance. It is widely cultivated in different regions of the world. However, climatic factors have a significant influence on its production. OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the ecoclimatic suitability and growth index of F.×ananassa in the face of the impacts of climate change in Brazil and the world. METHODS:The potential global distribution of F.×ananassa it was based on predicted global climate changes using CLIMEX and the A1B and A2 emissions scenario for the years 2050 and 2100. CLIMEX weekly growth index (GIw) was applied, and productivity data in commercial strawberry cultivation in Brazilian areas were collected. RESULTS:The results indicate a progressive reduction in areas suitable for strawberry cultivation globally, mainly on the African continent, Australia, China, and the Americas for the years 2050 and 2100. In Brazil, only the South region and part of the Southeast will continue to be suitable for strawberry production. CONCLUSIONS:The CLIMEX model predicts a reduction in the suitable area for cultivating Fragaria×ananassa Duch between 2050 and 2100 due to climate change. The generated maps can help identify new cultivation areas and support genetic improvement programmes to develop cultivars more tolerant to heat.

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气候变暖世界中的草莓：研究杜氏草莓（Fragaria×ananassa Duch）的生态位。不同气候情景下

背景：草莓（Fragaria×ananassa Duch.）是一种具有重要经济和营养价值的品种。它在世界不同地区广泛种植。然而，气候因素对其产量有重大影响。目的：评估 F.×anassa 在巴西和世界气候变化影响下的生态气候适宜性和生长指数。方法：根据 CLIMEX 预测的全球气候变化以及 2050 年和 2100 年的 A1B 和 A2 排放情景，确定 F.×anassa 的潜在全球分布。应用了 CLIMEX 周生长指数（GIw），并收集了巴西地区商业草莓种植的生产力数据。结果：结果表明，在 2050 年和 2100 年，全球适合种植草莓的地区逐渐减少，主要集中在非洲大陆、澳大利亚、中国和美洲。在巴西，只有南部地区和东南部的部分地区将继续适合草莓生产。结论：CLIMEX 模型预测，在 2050 年至 2100 年期间，由于气候变化，适合种植杜氏草莓的地区将减少。生成的地图有助于确定新的栽培区域，并支持基因改良计划，以培育更耐热的栽培品种。

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来源期刊

Journal of Berry Research Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology-Biochemistry

CiteScore

3.50

自引率

11.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： The main objective of the Journal of Berry Research is to improve the knowledge about quality and production of berries to benefit health of the consumers and maintain profitable production using sustainable systems. The objective will be achieved by focusing on four main areas of research and development: From genetics to variety evaluation Nursery production systems and plant quality control Plant physiology, biochemistry and molecular biology, as well as cultural management Health for the consumer: components and factors affecting berries'' nutritional value Specifically, the journal will cover berries (strawberry, raspberry, blackberry, blueberry, cranberry currants, etc.), as well as grapes and small soft fruit in general (e.g., kiwi fruit). It will publish research results covering all areas of plant breeding, including plant genetics, genomics, functional genomics, proteomics and metabolomics, plant physiology, plant pathology and plant development, as well as results dealing with the chemistry and biochemistry of bioactive compounds contained in such fruits and their possible role in human health. Contributions detailing possible pharmacological, medical or therapeutic use or dietary significance will be welcomed in addition to studies regarding biosafety issues of genetically modified plants.