An internally and externally validated nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival in octogenarians after radical resection for colorectal cancer.

Abstract

Aims: We aimed to develop an elaborative nomogram that predicts cancer-specific survival (CSS) in American and Chinese octogenarians treated with radical resection for CRC.

Methods: The patient data of newly diagnosed patients aged 80 years or older who underwent radical resection for CRC from 2010 to 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and then randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort. The patients collected from our hospital were defined as the external validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression was used to select independent predictive factors for the construction of a nomogram to predict 1-, 2- and 3-year CSS.

Results: The multivariate Cox regression model identified age, T stage, N stage, perineural invasion, chemotherapy, tumour deposits, carcinoembryonic antigen level, number of lymph node metastases, and number of solid organ metastases as independent predictors of survival. The C-index of the nomogram for 1-, 2- and 3-year CSS was 0.758, 0.762, and 0.727, respectively, demonstrating significant clinical value and substantial reliability compared to the TNM stage. The calibration curve and area under the curve also indicated considerable predictive accuracy. In addition, decision curve analysis demonstrated desirable net benefits in clinical application.

Conclusion: We constructed a nomogram for predicting the CSS of individual octogenarian patients with CRC who underwent radical resection. The nomogram performed better than the TNM staging system in this particular population and could guide clinicians in clinical follow-up and individual therapeutic plan formulation.