Forecast models for start and peak dates of Poaceae pollen season in Tétouan (NW Morocco) using multiple regression analysis

Abstract

Poaceae pollen is one of the most widespread sources of aeroallergens in the world. The aim of this study is to build predictive models for the pollen season start day (PSsd) and peak dates of the Poaceae pollen season and thus give an overview of the climatic parameters that have the greatest influence. In Tétouan, sampling was carried out using a volumetric spore trap of the Burkard Hirst type. The relationships between the PSsd, peak dates and meteorological parameters were determined using correlation analysis. The models were constructed using multiple regression analysis with data from 2008 to 2019 and tested on data from 2022. The PSsd was especially significantly influenced by minimum temperature during winter and precipitation in the autumn of the previous year. The peak dates were significantly correlated with precipitation in January, March and April, but not with temperature. Three models were obtained for each of the season’s parameters; the most accurate model for the PSsd explained a variability of 61% and includes as main predictors rainfall from the autumn of the previous year and the mean daily average temperature from 23 February to 8 March. The two most efficient peak dates models included precipitation in January and April as the main predictor variables, and explained greater variability (87 and 88%). Precipitation in autumn and the mean daily and the sum of minimum temperature in winter, showed significant decreasing tendencies. However, the PSsd trend delay was not statistically significant. This study draws the importance of the weather during preseason for grass pollen production and emphasises the usefulness of the models for allergic patients to take preventive measures and for healthcare professionals in allergy therapy.