Le Li, Jingyuan Guan, Xi Peng, Likun Zhou, Zhuxin Zhang, Ligang Ding, Lihui Zheng, Lingmin Wu, Zhicheng Hu, Limin Liu, Yan Yao
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Introduction: Sepsis-associated acute kidney injury (SA-AKI) is strongly associated with poor prognosis. We aimed to build a machine learning (ML)-based clinical model to predict 1-year mortality in patients with SA-AKI.
Methods: Six ML algorithms were included to perform model fitting. Feature selection was based on the feature importance evaluated by the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to evaluate the discriminatory ability of the prediction model. Calibration curve and Brier score were employed to assess the calibrated ability. Our ML-based prediction models were validated both internally and externally.
Results: A total of 12,750 patients with SA-AKI and 55 features were included to build the prediction models. We identified the top 10 predictors including age, ICU stay and GCS score based on the feature importance. Among the six ML algorithms, the CatBoost showed the best prediction performance with an AUROC of 0.813 and Brier score of 0.119. In the external validation set, the predictive value remained favorable (AUROC = 0.784).
Conclusion: In this study, we developed and validated a ML-based prediction model based on 10 commonly used clinical features which could accurately and early identify the individuals at high-risk of long-term mortality in patients with SA-AKI.
期刊介绍:
BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making is an open access journal publishing original peer-reviewed research articles in relation to the design, development, implementation, use, and evaluation of health information technologies and decision-making for human health.