Analyzing fatal crash patterns of recidivist drivers across genders and age Groups: A hazard-based duration approach

Abstract

Identifying factors that significantly affect drivers that are repeatedly involved in traffic violations or non-fatal crashes (defined here as recidivist drivers) is very important in highway safety studies. This study sought to understand the relationship between a set of variables related to previous driving violations and the duration between a previous non-fatal crash and a subsequent fatal crash, taking into account the age and gender of the driver. By identifying the characteristics of this unique driver population and the factors that influence the duration between their crash events strategies can be put in place to prevent the occurrence of future and potentially fatal crashes. To do this, a five-year (2015–2019) historical fatal crash data from the United States was used for this study. Out of 15,956 fatal crashes involving recidivist drivers obtained, preliminary analysis revealed an overrepresentation of males (about 75%). It was also found that the average duration between the two crash events was about a year and a half, with only an average of one month difference between male and female drivers. Using hazard-based duration models, factors such as number of previous crashes, previous traffic violations, primary contributing factors and some driver demographic characteristics were found to significantly be associated with the duration between the two crash events. The duration between the two events increased with driver’s age for drivers who were involved in only one previous crash and the duration was shorter for those that were previously involved in multiple crashes. Previous DUI violations, license suspensions, and previous speeding violations were found to be associated with shorter durations, at varying degrees depending on the driver’s age and gender. The duration was also observed to be longer if the fatal crash involved alcohol or drug use among younger drivers but shorter among middle-aged male drivers. These findings reveal interesting dynamics that may be linked to recidivist tendencies among some drivers involved in fatal crashes. The factors identified from this study could help identify crash countermeasures and programs that will help to reform such driver behaviors.