Asymmetric spot-futures prices adjustments in Quebec grain markets

Abstract

Asymmetric price transmission has been the subject of many studies in agricultural economics, but few has been said on Quebec grain market. This study uses threshold cointegration models to examine the dynamic relationship between Quebec spot and futures prices. Estimation results with daily, weekly, and monthly data from September 1994 to May 2022 are three-fold. First, the main point to keep from cointegration tests is that futures prices and Quebec local grain prices are integrated but estimations with daily data are consistent to highlight a nonlinear long-run relationship. Second, results indicate overall positive asymmetric for daily and weekly prices transmissions from futures to spot market. Third, the positive asymmetric prices transmissions shed light on the oligopoly structure of Quebec grain market and inefficiencies in the pricing mechanism which favor local grain sellers. Results with different data frequencies show that aggregated monthly prices data compared to more disaggregated data such as daily and weekly prices may lead to different results. Results imply that policymakers and market stakeholders could facilitate increased grain market competition. Grain users like Quebec hog producers need to better understand additional tools for their management of price risk like futures market and real time prices movement monitoring.