{"title":"Unusually low dust activity in North Africa in June 2023: Causes, impacts and future projections","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107594","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Dust activity during the pre-monsoon season in Africa has an impact on the monsoon circulation and the Atlantic hurricane season. During early June 2023 the atmosphere was relatively clear over West Africa and the eastern tropical Atlantic, in contrast with the dustier June 2020. The negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation suppressed dust lifting, with an equatorward shifted African Easterly Jet limiting its downstream advection. On the other hand, dust accumulated in the atmosphere over northeastern Africa, with the negative dust aerosol optical depth (DAOD) anomalies over western Africa and the positive anomalies over eastern Africa more than two standard deviations away from the climatological mean. The lack of dust led to an up to 55 W m<sup>−2</sup> increase in the surface downward shortwave radiation flux and a 35 W m<sup>−2</sup> decrease in the longwave flux, and is in line with the record-breaking sea surface temperatures over the eastern tropical Atlantic and the active start to the Atlantic hurricane season. In order to explore future projections of DAOD, a multi-model ensemble (MME) is constructed from 29 models that integrate the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It captures the positive trend in the June DAOD over the eastern tropical Atlantic during 1980–2014, although the amplitude is roughly a factor of six smaller than the 0.0017 year<sup>−1</sup> in the reanalysis dataset. The CMIP6 MME projects a further increase in DAOD in the region at a rate of up to 0.0003 year<sup>−1</sup> in the most extreme climate change scenario for 2066–2100, which is comparable to that seen during the historical period, even though the mean values are projected to decrease by 0.03–0.06. While lower dust loadings may lead to improved air quality, they will likely further fuel pre-season and early season storms in the North Atlantic, which have become more frequent in recent decades.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Atmospheric Research","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809524003764","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Dust activity during the pre-monsoon season in Africa has an impact on the monsoon circulation and the Atlantic hurricane season. During early June 2023 the atmosphere was relatively clear over West Africa and the eastern tropical Atlantic, in contrast with the dustier June 2020. The negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation suppressed dust lifting, with an equatorward shifted African Easterly Jet limiting its downstream advection. On the other hand, dust accumulated in the atmosphere over northeastern Africa, with the negative dust aerosol optical depth (DAOD) anomalies over western Africa and the positive anomalies over eastern Africa more than two standard deviations away from the climatological mean. The lack of dust led to an up to 55 W m−2 increase in the surface downward shortwave radiation flux and a 35 W m−2 decrease in the longwave flux, and is in line with the record-breaking sea surface temperatures over the eastern tropical Atlantic and the active start to the Atlantic hurricane season. In order to explore future projections of DAOD, a multi-model ensemble (MME) is constructed from 29 models that integrate the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It captures the positive trend in the June DAOD over the eastern tropical Atlantic during 1980–2014, although the amplitude is roughly a factor of six smaller than the 0.0017 year−1 in the reanalysis dataset. The CMIP6 MME projects a further increase in DAOD in the region at a rate of up to 0.0003 year−1 in the most extreme climate change scenario for 2066–2100, which is comparable to that seen during the historical period, even though the mean values are projected to decrease by 0.03–0.06. While lower dust loadings may lead to improved air quality, they will likely further fuel pre-season and early season storms in the North Atlantic, which have become more frequent in recent decades.
期刊介绍:
The journal publishes scientific papers (research papers, review articles, letters and notes) dealing with the part of the atmosphere where meteorological events occur. Attention is given to all processes extending from the earth surface to the tropopause, but special emphasis continues to be devoted to the physics of clouds, mesoscale meteorology and air pollution, i.e. atmospheric aerosols; microphysical processes; cloud dynamics and thermodynamics; numerical simulation, climatology, climate change and weather modification.