Trend analysis and prediction of injury incidence in China from 1990 to 2019 based on Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

IF 2.5 3区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Yuanjie Meng, Chaocai Wang, Yan Liu
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Injury is a major challenge to global public health. Analysing the trend of injury incidence in China from 1990 to 2019 and predicting future trends in incidence can provide a theoretical basis for injury prevention and control in China.

Methods: We collected age-standardised incidence rates of injuries in China from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. We analysed trends using joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models. A prediction study was conducted using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

Results: From 1990 to 2019, there was an increasing trend in transport injuries, a decreasing trend in unintentional injuries and a decreasing trend in self-harm and interpersonal violence. The high-risk age for transport injuries, unintentional injuries and self-harm and interpersonal violence were 20-69 years (relative risk (RR)>1), ≤14 and ≥80 years (RR>1) and 20-24 years (RR=2.311, 95% CI 2.296 to 2.326), respectively. Projections indicate that by 2030, the incidence of transport and unintentional injuries will increase, whereas the incidence of self-harm and interpersonal violence will decrease.

Conclusion: The age group with the highest risk of transport injuries, unintentional injuries and self-harm and interpersonal violence were the 20-69 years, ≤ 14 and ≥80 years and 20-24 years age groups, respectively. Transport injuries and unintentional injuries will increase in 2020-2030, while self-harm and interpersonal violence will decrease. These can serve as a basis for developing measures to prevent and manage the impact of injuries.

基于贝叶斯年龄-周期-队列模型的1990-2019年中国伤害发生率趋势分析与预测。
背景:伤害是全球公共卫生面临的一大挑战。分析 1990 年至 2019 年中国伤害发生率的变化趋势并预测未来发生率的变化趋势,可为中国伤害预防和控制提供理论依据:方法:我们从《2019 年全球疾病负担》研究中收集了 1990 年至 2019 年中国伤害的年龄标准化发病率。我们使用连接点回归和年龄-时期-队列模型分析了趋势。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型进行了预测研究:从 1990 年到 2019 年,交通伤害呈上升趋势,意外伤害呈下降趋势,自残和人际暴力呈下降趋势。交通伤害、意外伤害以及自残和人际暴力的高危年龄分别为20-69岁(相对风险(RR)>1)、≤14岁和≥80岁(RR>1)以及20-24岁(RR=2.311,95% CI为2.296至2.326)。预测表明,到2030年,交通事故和意外伤害的发生率将上升,而自残和人际暴力的发生率将下降:交通伤害、意外伤害和自残及人际暴力风险最高的年龄组分别是 20-69 岁、≤14 岁和≥80 岁以及 20-24 岁年龄组。2020-2030 年,交通伤害和意外伤害将增加,而自残和人际暴力将减少。这些可以作为制定预防和管理伤害影响的措施的基础。
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来源期刊
Injury Prevention
Injury Prevention 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生
CiteScore
5.30
自引率
2.70%
发文量
68
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Since its inception in 1995, Injury Prevention has been the pre-eminent repository of original research and compelling commentary relevant to this increasingly important field. An international peer reviewed journal, it offers the best in science, policy, and public health practice to reduce the burden of injury in all age groups around the world. The journal publishes original research, opinion, debate and special features on the prevention of unintentional, occupational and intentional (violence-related) injuries. Injury Prevention is online only.
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