US trade policy and the US dollar

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-14 DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103970

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We show that the US dollar response to trade policy uncertainty (TPU) is key to assessing the impact of US trade policy. Employing structural vector autoregressive models, we find that TPU shocks supported a multilateral USD appreciation during the 2018–19 trade tensions between the US and some of its major trading partners. We rationalize this in a two-country New Keynesian model with financial frictions that links the increase in TPU to rising demand for safe USD assets. Our findings suggest that the TPU-induced appreciation of the USD in 2018–19 significantly counteracted US trade policy attempts to raise US competitiveness.

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美国贸易政策与美元

我们表明，美元对贸易政策不确定性（TPU）的反应是评估美国贸易政策影响的关键。利用结构性向量自回归模型，我们发现在2018-19年美国与其一些主要贸易伙伴之间的贸易紧张局势期间，贸易政策不确定性冲击支持了美元的多边升值。我们在一个具有金融摩擦的两国新凯恩斯主义模型中对此进行了合理化解释，该模型将TPU的增加与对安全美元资产需求的上升联系起来。我们的研究结果表明，2018-19 年由 TPU 引发的美元升值极大地抵消了美国为提高竞争力而采取的贸易政策努力。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of International Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

5.80

自引率

6.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of International Economics is intended to serve as the primary outlet for theoretical and empirical research in all areas of international economics. These include, but are not limited to the following: trade patterns, commercial policy; international institutions; exchange rates; open economy macroeconomics; international finance; international factor mobility. The Journal especially encourages the submission of articles which are empirical in nature, or deal with issues of open economy macroeconomics and international finance. Theoretical work submitted to the Journal should be original in its motivation or modelling structure. Empirical analysis should be based on a theoretical framework, and should be capable of replication.