Predicting and optimizing the fair allocation of donations in hunger relief supply chains

Abstract

Non-profit hunger relief organizations primarily depend on donors’ benevolence to help alleviate hunger in their communities. However, the quantity and frequency of donations they receive may vary over time, thus making fair distribution of donated supplies challenging. This paper presents a hierarchical forecasting methodology to determine the quantity of food donations received per month in a multi-warehouse food aid network. We further link the forecasts to an optimization model to identify the fair allocation of donations, considering the network distribution capacity in terms of supply chain coordination and flexibility. The results indicate which locations within the network are under-served and how donated supplies can be allocated to minimize the deviation between overserved and underserved counties.